2012 BCS National Championship Preview

LSU Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide

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Here we go again. What was called “The Game Of The Century” in early November has now become “the repeat of the season” or “the BCS rematch” just two months later. Michigan and Ohio State were deprived of a rematch after they played a closely-contested 1-versus-2 showdown late in the 2006 college football regular season. Moreover, Michigan – the losing No. 2 team – played that game on the road, not at home. By many standards, Michigan had a better case for a 2006 title-game rematch than the 2011 Alabama team does now. Alabama lost to LSU at home on Nov. 5 and did not have LSU’s quality non-conference wins. Yet, while the Big Ten did not get its 2006 do-over, the SEC has gained its reunion on college football’s biggest stage.

It does have to be said that while this rematch is a rare event, other teams who had the chance to reshape the calculus were unable to do so: When Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State on November 18 and no other team could fill in the gap, the stars aligned for Alabama to retake the No. 2 spot and find its way into the Louisiana Superdome on the second Monday of January. All Oklahoma State needed to do was put away a team that finished 6-6 on the season. The Big 12 champions merely needed to protect a 24-7 midgame lead, and they simply couldn’t finish. That, in a nutshell, is why Alabama is playing LSU while Oklahoma State faces Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl.

The best reason to favor LSU in a pure X-and-O sense is that the Tigers have more speed than Alabama. It’s not that Alabama’s slow; the Crimson Tide has shown that it is supremely skilled on the defensive side of the ball. However, LSU has placed a particular emphasis on being nimble enough to win every meaningful skirmish on the edges and in both backfields. The fact that LSU opened its season against the ultra-fast Oregon Ducks made the Bayou Bengals acutely aware of the need to be fast in the secondary and at linebacker. LSU thoroughly shut down Oregon’s running game in a 40-27 win that felt like a 25-point win more than a 13-point victory. In this game, the Tigers can take the field against Alabama knowing that they’ve already beaten the Crimson Tide on the road. LSU’s previous two BCS national championships were won in the Superdome before a partisan crowd. The dome-field advantage that marked LSU’s 2004 Sugar Bowl win over Oklahoma and its 2008 BCS National Championship Game win over Ohio State should once again emerge in this contest. LSU also knows that as was the case in the first matchup between these teams on Nov. 5, Alabama quarterback A.J. McCarron will have a tough time fitting the ball into tight windows against the Tigers’ back line of defense. McCarron threw out routes to the sidelines without the zip and velocity he needed to smoke LSU’s world-class cornerbacks, whose ball skills are better than that of many receiving corps in the United States. Speed is the currency which will carry a great deal of freight for the Tigers in this game.

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Then, let’s consider this rematch from an Alabama perspective: For all of LSU’s successes, the Tigers remain a team quarterbacked by Jordan Jefferson, a man who could not generate one first down in the entire first half of the SEC Championship Game this past Saturday against Georgia. LSU tallied just 12 total yards in that first half, a clear indicator that Alabama can once again shut down LSU. Jarrett Lee was the Tigers’ starting quarterback on Nov. 5, but Jefferson will get the call this time around. Alabama smothered both quarterbacks in the regular-season meeting, a reality which points to another tough night for the Bayou Bengals.

Jefferson can be electric at times – he certainly came alive late in the second quarter of his team’s furious 41-17 comeback win against Arkansas – but he did nothing of note against Georgia and was also silent in the Nov. 5 game against Alabama. Moreover, the Bayou Bengals also came up with game-changing special-teams plays that gave them a needed margin for error in some of their other wins this season. As long as the Crimson Tide don’t allow LSU kick returner Tyrann Mathieu to beat them, they can win a low-scoring game against the Tigers. Alabama’s defense ranks in the top three of several statistical categories; head coach Nick Saban and defensive coordinator Kirby Smart are regarded as two of the best defensive minds in the college game. A team with a great defense and even better defensive strategists should be able to find the game plan that confuses Jefferson once again and makes LSU’s offense crumble. Alabama might not score much against LSU’s fast defense, but the Tigers might score even fewer points against the Crimson Tide.

It’s going to be an old-fashioned SEC slugfest. Neither team should score a lot, because both defenses should be a step ahead of the offenses (this is, of course, what was said before the first meeting between these teams on November 5 in Tuscaloosa). More specifically, neither quarterback is dynamic enough to outmaneuver the linebackers and safeties posed by the opposition. The sense here is that Jordan Jefferson will make fewer mistakes than A.J. McCarron. When getting down to brass tacks, the importance of the Superdome – on this particular stage, but also in the history of BCS title games played inside that very same building - can’t be emphasized enough. LSU will be playing a home game; moreover, LSU has never played a BCS bowl outside the Superdome (it is 4-0 in the BCS games it has played, all in its own back yard).

STATS:

Alabama:

72nd in passing offense – 213.6 yards per game

15th in rushing offense – 219.8 yards per game

16th in points scored – 36 points per game

1st in points allowed – 8.8 points per game

LSU:

105th in passing offense – 160.2 yards per game

17th in rushing offense – 215.2 yards per game

12th in points scored – 38.5 points per game

2nd in points allowed – 10.5 points per game

By: Matt Zemek
DFN Sports Senior Staff Writer