2010 BCS National Championship Bowl Game Preview

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0, SEC Champion) versus #2 Texas Longhorns (13-0, Big XII Champion)

January 7th, 2010 - ABC - 8:00 PM EST in Pasadena, California - Buy BCS Championship tickets

The BCS Championship Game was first created in 1998 to pair the top two teams in the country and determine a National Champion. Originally, the game rotated between the four major bowls (Orange, Rose, Sugar, Fiesta) until it became its own stand alone game hosted by a rotation of the four major participants in 2006.

The first BCS Championship Game saw Tennessee defeat Florida State in the Fiesta Bowl and since then ten different schools have won National Championships. The only two schools to win multiple championships have been LSU and Florida. Each of the six major conferences has boasted a national champion in the first twelve years and the SEC currently leads the tally with five. In fact, the Big XII is the only other league that has won more than one championship!

This year’s game will be hosted by the Rose Bowl, the 3rd time since the inception of the BCS that the ‘Granddaddy of Them All’ has been the site of the Championship showcase. In 2001, Miami defeated Nebraska to claim their 5th National Championship and in 2005 Texas defeated USC in a game for the ages. Will this year’s edition be as memorable as the Horns’ last visit to Pasadena?

YEAR IN REVIEW

#1 Alabama (13-0) Alabama is one of the last traditional powers to officially make an entrance in the BCS Championship scene. Though the Tide claim 12 National Championships, their last big prize came in 1992 and they have only emerged from a decade-long down cycle in the past two years. This will be Alabama’s 3rd appearance in the BCS and they will be looking for their first victory as their previous two appearances were a loss against Michigan in the 2000 Orange Bowl and a shocking upset defeat against Utah in last year’s Sugar Bowl.

Nick Saban is in his 3rd year as Alabama’s head coach. He has engineered a quick turnaround in Tuscaloosa as his last two teams finished the regular season undefeated and he has a record of 32-8 in his three years in charge of the Crimson Tide. However, Saban is also a former head coach at Toledo, Michigan State and LSU. His tenure at LSU was particularly notable as he led the Tigers to the 2003 National Championship and his career coaching record is 123-50-1 at the NCAA level. He has also presided over four conference champions in his career. The only blemish on his resume is his 4-6 career bowl record, though he is 2-1 in BCS games.

Alabama announced their arrival as a major national player on the season’s opening night when they soundly defeated ranked Virginia Tech in Atlanta. Since that game, the Tide rolled through the regular season, their most notable victories coming at Ole Miss, LSU and Auburn. With a 12-0 record, Alabama faced off against 12-0 Florida in the SEC Championship Game and dominated the defending national champs to the tune of 32-13, earning a bid for the Crystal Trophy for the first time.

The Crimson Tide enjoyed a significantly improved season on offense. Behind the rushing of Mark Ingram and the steady play of quarterback Greg McElroy, the Tide scored an average of 31.7 points per game, finishing 27th nationally. However, their running game was truly dominant, finishing 8th in the country and earning starting tailback Ingram an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony. Their passing offense was efficient but it only finished 67 th nationally, showing their commitment to running the football. Don’t take their low ranking as a sign of weakness, however, as McElroy finished with 17 pass TDs against only four interceptions and was named the MVP of the SEC Championship Game, so he is clearly a solid quarterback. Alabama is very strong offensively and has the ability to wear any defense down.

However, it is the Crimson Tide defense which is the true strength of their team. This is the top scoring defense in the country at a mere 11 points per game and they are death to the run (5 th overall) and pass (13 th). Alabama is also 2nd in the country in yards per game allowed behind only TCU! Featuring stars like Rolando McClain, Terrance Cody and Javier Arenas, the Tide has snared 20 interceptions and has not met an offense all season that has scored more than 21 points. Needless to say, this is a dominant defense and it has been the driving force behind their unbeaten season. One thing to watch in the weeks leading up to the game: Defensive coordinator Kirby Smart is rumored to be a top candidate at a number of schools and could be on the move and that could affect their preparation.

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#2 Texas Longhorns (13-0) Texas has been a fixture in the BCS in recent years and this is their 4 th BCS berth in the last six seasons. The 2005 BCS Champions return to the site of their monumental triumph with the goal in mind to become the 3 rd team in the BCS era to win two National Championships. The Longhorns are 3-0 in their BCS history (including 2-0 in Pasadena) and will look to maintain their perfect record against the Tide.

Texas is coached by the venerable Mack Brown, who is capping off his 12th season in charge in Austin. During that time period, the Longhorns are an incredible 128-26 and have won at least ten games every year since 2001! Brown presided over Texas’ first National Championship since 1970 and his teams at Texas are an excellent 8-3 in bowl games. When you include his ten year tenure at North Carolina and a stop at Tulane, his career record is 213-100-1 with an 11-5 record in the postseason. Brown is clearly one of the best coaches in the country.

And his team is also always clearly one of the best teams in the country. This year’s team began the year by dominating a weak non-conference schedule and blew through a down Big XII to finish the regular season 12-0. The highlights included a 16-13 win in the Red River Shootout over archrival Oklahoma and a dominant 41-14 victory at #13 Oklahoma State. However, the Horns’ vaunted defense saved their season in the Big XII Championship Game, which they won 13-12 over Nebraska on a last second field goal to earn a shot at the National Championship.

Texas has a very strong offense, spearheaded by Heisman candidate Colt McCoy, who is in his 4th year starting for the Longhorns. He recently became the NCAA’s all-time leader in wins at quarterback. Their offense was extremely prolific this year, finishing 3 rd in the country in scoring at 40.7 points per game. This was largely thanks to their 11th ranked passing offense, which featured McCoy’s 27 touchdown tosses against 12 interceptions. Texas’ run game, on the other hand, was only the 48th best in the country, the second consecutive year that the Horns failed to put together a solid ground attack. This was largely due to the fact that Texas never found a feature back and McCoy finished with more carries than any tailback for the 2nd year in a row. While they did score 28 times on the ground, Texas’ lack of a strong rushing game will be a major concern.

However, the Longhorn defense improved by leaps and bounds from last year, finishing 8th in scoring defense at 15.2 points per game. Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp is considered one of the nation’s best and is Texas’ Coach In Waiting. The Longhorns were by far the stingiest run defense in the country, allowing an average of only 63 rush yards per game! Their pass defense was less intimidating at 40th nationally but it is important to remember that most teams had no choice but to throw the football because they a) had zero chance of success on the ground and b) were usually behind early and needed to catch up. Texas appears to be every bit as dominant defensively as their opponents in this championship clash.

KEY MATCHUP: ALABAMA’S #8 RUSH OFFENSE vs. TEXAS’ #1 RUSH DEFENSE

These two teams pride themselves on winning this particular matchup and that formula has bred great success for both. Alabama gashed mighty Florida on the ground in their SEC Championship victory while Texas has not allowed a single player to rush for 100 yards this year. Rival Texas A&M was the only team that managed to have any sustained success. In fact, Texas held archrival Oklahoma to minus 16 yards!

This is going to be your old-school throwback type of matchup: The stronger team in the trenches will win. Alabama has done a great job rebuilding their offensive line after losing three starters from last season and Texas has been surprisingly strong up front. This is going to be a head-banging battle down low and most observers would likely consider this matchup a stalemate.

However, the Crimson Tide have one major advantage: Tailbacks Ingram and Trent Richardson will be, by far, the best combination that the Longhorns will have faced this season and their hard downhill running style should result in plenty of success on the ground. On the other hand, there is a major misperception about the quality of run defenses that Alabama has faced this year. People assume because they play in the SEC that they’ve performed against some of the country’s best run defenses but here are their outputs against the top half of the country:

• 275 yards against #21 Florida

• 176 against #43 LSU

• 264 against #46 South Carolina

• 268 against #53 Virginia Tech

• 200 against #56 Mississippi

• 136 against #59 Tennessee

That’s still an excellent output of 220 yards per game, though only Florida is ranked in the top third of the country in run defense. Thus, you have to wonder if Alabama didn’t build up some numbers against weaker competition. But on the other hand, it is even more telling to look at Texas’ defensive performance against top half ground offenses:

• 134 yards against #24 Oklahoma State

• 190 against #25 Texas A&M

• 101 against #32 Louisiana-Monroe

• 67 against #59 Nebraska

That’s right, Texas has only faced four run offenses ranked in the top half of the country! Take away the Cornhuskers, who are played an extra game to sneak into the top half and Texas has allowed the three ground attacks that they’ve faced in the top 3 rd of the nation to each run for over 100 yards and they are the only three to break that mark this year against the Longhorns.

Thus, it appears that Texas has struggled with the only solid rushing offenses that they’ve seen, making it sure look like they’ve built their stellar reputation on the ground against a bunch of tomato cans. While Alabama hasn’t faced a top 20 rush offense, they’ve dominated a number of strong groups and seem far more prepared for war in the trenches than Texas.

Expect Alabama to pound the ball early and often. They should rack up plenty of yards and open up Texas’ great pass defense to play action when they try to counter by bringing etra men into the box. While this appears to be an even matchup on the surface, further inspection reveals a clear advantage for the Crimson Tide.

THE BREAKDOWN

The issue of motivation shouldn’t even be a thought for either participant in the National Championship Game but history seems to indicate otherwise. In the previous seven BCS Championships, the #2 ranked team heading into the game has won a whopping six times! This seems to be the byproduct of the media building one participant up over the other and unwittingly creating a David v. Goliath storyline. That slight has seen major underdogs (Ohio State in 2002, Texas in 2005, Florida in 2006) emerge victorious because the perceived lack of respect shown to them combined with the subconscious complacency of the favorite has created a serious motivational advantage for the #2 ranked team.

It was with that in mind that Nick Saban proactively found himself on television excoriating the hosts of ESPN’s bowl selection show and all but ordered them to take Texas seriously as a major contender and a fine football team. He was clearly aware of the recent history of favorites in the championship game and wanted to nip the ‘Alabama is going to kill Texas’ storyline that emerged after Alabama’s dominant SEC Championship victory in the bud.

It was to no avail. The vast majority of the country seems set on the Crimson Tide becoming the 4 th consecutive SEC team to win the National Championship and Texas has been painted as a major underdog despite their unbeaten status. Thus, I have to conclude that the Longhorns will go into the game with a chip on their shoulder and a motivational edge after a month of being told that they’re walking into a slaughter. Watch out, Crimson Tide.

The recent bowl history for both teams also seems to favor the Longhorns. Texas has won their past five bowl games, including a 3-0 mark in BCS play. Meanwhile, Alabama is 1-1 in Saban’s first two seasons and his 4-6 career bowl record is a concern. However, there is one statistic in favor of the Crimson Tide: SEC teams are 5-0 in National Championship Games while the Big XII has staggered to a 2-4 record. Will the SEC’s run end in Pasadena at the hands of Mack Brown’s excellent bowl preparation?

However, it is very important to not let historical trends dominate any prognostication. There is more than enough information available from this season which can be drawn upon to figure out the minutiae of the game. A few important trends would be:

• Texas’ dominance on 3rd down. While Alabama is about average nationally at extending drives, converting at a 40.6% rate, Texas is among the best in the nation at 46.1%. That puts them as the 18 th best in the country and could be a key advantage.

• Alabama is significantly more disciplined. Texas is the 27th most penalized team in the country while the Crimson Tide is the 32nd least penalized! Texas has been hit with 180 more penalty yards this year and that lack of discipline could be crucial in a close game like this.

• Shockingly, Texas is the dominant team on returns. While everyone assumes that Alabama’s Javier Arenas is a major weapon, he’s been largely bottled up this year and the Tide has only one kick return for a score. Meanwhile, Texas has returned five kicks for touchdowns this year and Jordan Shipley is one of the most dangerous punt returners in the country. As both teams cover equally well, this could be a big advantage for the Horns and I wouldn’t be shocked whatsoever if a special teams play proved to be decisive.

• The turnover margin is largely equal. Texas has forced 37 turnovers while giving the ball up 23 times, producing a stellar +14 margin. Meanwhile, Alabama has forced 26 turnovers while only giving up ten of their own, leaving them with a slight advantage at +16. However, the Tide have been significantly better at protecting the football and that could indicate that they’re better positioned to win the turnover battle in this game.

Alabama vs Texas Prediction

The largest prize in college football awaits the winner of this game. Both teams have emerged unscathed from the regular season and both are extremely capable of winning the National Championship. However, in the end there can be only one. Who will raise the Crystal Trophy?

The general public definitely will lean towards the Crimson Tide. While that is a sign of respect for their accomplishments, it has also been an omen in the past half decade. The Tide also face a team full of players who have never lost a bowl game and will surely have a chip on their collective shoulder heading into this game.

But motivation and public perception alone won’t win this game for Texas. The Longhorns have had issues running the football all year and Alabama’s excellent defense will almost surely turn them into a one dimensional team. Furthermore, Texas’ vaunted run defense appears to have been built upon a house of cards and that could come crashing down against Alabama’s powerful ground game.

The Crimson Tide also hold an advantage in the turnover department as they’ve only relinquished the ball half as often as Texas and their opportunistic defense should get their hands on the football. Combine that with Texas’ discipline issues and that could put the Longhorns 3 rd and long: Prime position for turnovers.

The final factor to consider is Texas’ exceptional return ability. Their returners have pulled the Horns out of the fire a few times this year and that kind of big play can swing the momentum in a major way.

With all of those factors considered, how will the National Championship play out? I keep coming back to the weak level of competition that Texas has faced this year, their struggles against good rushing offenses and their major struggles in their only two big games of the season. While there is no doubt that Colt McCoy and company will score some points, Alabama’s run defense is going to keep the NCAA’s most winning quarterback in history on the sidelines and the Tide are going to put up a big number on the ground and in Time of Possession.

However, this will not be a blowout by any means. Texas is going to fight for four quarters and I expect this game to come down to a late field goal by Alabama’s steady kicker, Leigh Tiffin. The Crimson Tide will extend the SEC’s National Championship streak to four years with a late victory over the very capable Longhorns.

Keep an eye on collegesports-fans.com after New Year’s for daily updates on both the Tide and Longhorns leading up to the game!

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