2009 Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl Preview

Marshall (6-6, 4-4; Conference USA) vs. Ohio (9-4, 7-1; MAC)

December 26th, 2009 @ 1:00 PM (EST) – ESPN – Detroit, Michigan - Buy Little Casear's Pizza Bowl tickets

Formerly known as the Motor City Bowl, the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl enters its 13th year of existence with a contest between Conference USA and the Mid-American Conference. The only bowl played in the Midwest, this game kicks off the post-Christmas rush of bowl contests and has been one of the most exciting bowl games in recent years.

Ohio had a wonderful season, winning the MAC East Division for the second time under Frank Solich. The Bobcats finished the regular season by winning seven of their final eight games, including a dominant victory over Temple to clinch the East. Unfortunately, they fell short in the Championship Game against Central Michigan but they played very well in a closer-than-expected 20-10 loss. Solich has a career record of 32-30 at Ohio and the former Nebraska coach has a career record of 90-49 overall. He is 3-4 in bowl games but his only postseason appearance in charge of the Bobcats was a loss.

Ohio certainly didn’t win nine games this season on the strength of their offense, which finished at a lowly 75th after only scoring 25.4 points per game. The Bobcats were 92nd in rushing and 77th in passing and gave the ball away 22 times! While there are some positives to this group, such as the play of quarterback Theo Scott, this was largely a difficult offense to watch.

But an ugly offense can be offset by a beautiful defense. The Bobcats finished 1st in the country in forcing turnovers with 36 and that led to a top ten rating in turnover margin at +14! Their defense was the 32nd best in scoring average, giving up only 21.3 points per game. Their opportunism is exemplified by their rankings against both the run (71st) and pass (40th) because if they weren’t able to force so many turnovers then they would have surely finished a lot lower in scoring defense. This group is the country’s best at forcing teams into mistakes and that is what makes them great defensively.

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Marshall endured a difficult season. After beginning the year with a 4-2 mark, they stumbled badly down the stretch and lost three of their final four games, capped by an ugly 52-21 blowout at UTEP. Despite earning a bowl berth for the first time since 2004, their poor finish cost coach Mark Snyder his job. That leaves the Thundering Herd with a major leadership void and the majority opinion is that Marshall only took this bowl berth because the athletic department needed the $750,000 payout that came along with it.

The Thundering Herd certainly didn’t live up to their name on offense, averaging a paltry 21.8 points per game to finish 94th in America. With a run attack ranked 72nd, a passing game ranked 61st, the 14th most penalties in the country and a negative turnover margin, it is no surprise that they weren’t able to consistently score any points.

Marshall’s defense was somewhat better, finishing 59th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game. This is actually a success considering that their 61st ranked run defense and 99th ranked pass defense would seem to indicate that they were much worse. Unlike Ohio, who doubled Marshall’s 18 turnovers, there is no turnover-based explanation for their decent showing on the scoreboard. In almost every statistical category, the Thundering Herd defense is middling at best and ‘middling’ would be an apt way to sum up their season was well.

However, this game isn’t going to be neatly summed up by both team’s abilities on the field. With the uncertainty surrounding the head coaching vacancy at Marshall and the disappointment at losing their head coach, the Herd’s motivation has to be called into serious question. As they were non-competitive in half of their losses this season, this seems to be a team seriously lacking in the mental toughness department and I will be surprised if they’re truly up to play this game.

Meanwhile, Ohio showed up to play every single Saturday and is guided by the steady hand of Frank Solich. The Bobcats are the nation’s best at capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes and with all the confusion on the opposing sideline, you can bet that they’ll have plenty of opportunities to do so in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl. Expect Solich’s team to be much more motivated and much better prepared both physically and mentally to play this game. Some bowl games can be decided before the game is played as motivation and preparation can vary widely between two opponents and this appears to be one of those games. Expect Ohio to jump on a bunch of Marshall mistakes and win this one fairly easily.

Motor City Bowl Pick: Ohio 27, Marshall 10

by Matt Baxendell
Bax is collegesports-fans.com’s football writer. Keep an eye out for all 34 of his bowl previews! If you want to get in touch with him, email him at Matt.Baxendell@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @MattBaxendell

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