THE WORLD OF BAX: Improvement is in the Eye of the Beholder

Now that most teams in the country have played 5 or 6 games, we can really start to get a read on the progress that many teams have made from last year. However, a word of caution: we have half of a season left for teams to write their own fate, so this might be premature. For example, had I written this column a year ago, South Carolina and Cal (both 6-1 at the time) would surely have been two of the top schools but their second halves were as disastrous as the first halves were successful. So beware, teams that I list as most improved, you still have half of a season to fall on your face.

MOST IMPROVED

Alabama Crimson Tide

The difference between two seasons is stunning. Despite a tough showing against Kentucky last weekend, the Tide has shown a remarkable change from last season’s turnover and penalty-prone squad. The Tide has shown poise and a complete reluctance to make mistakes in big games. Furthermore, the top recruiting class in the country has done more than have a direct impact this year; Many of the upperclassmen have been forced to step up to hold onto their starting spots. The best way to describe this team is well coached.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Hello, Big Offense. Their worst output of the year was a relatively paltry 39-spot that they scored on the season’s opening weekend! If the Cowboys can score enough to knock off Missouri this weekend, Mike Gundy will go from “I’M A MAN!” to simply ‘the man.’

Michigan State Spartans

Looking for improvement across the board? Then go no further than East Lansing, Michigan, where the Spartans’ depth chart has increasing in talent at every position from last fall. Aside from Heisman candidate Javon Ringer, both of the Spartans’ lines of scrimmage have improved by leaps and bounds and the defense is playing with an attitude. Factor in the improvement of steady but unspectacular senior QB Brian Hoyer and it is not outside the realm of probability that Michigan State could win ten games this year.

North Carolina Tar Heels

While we’re on the topic of improvement, the UNC-UConn game last weekend was a case study in improvement. UConn, ranked and hyped up after a weak opening schedule, was exposed while UNC showed how far they’ve come from last season. The Tar Heels honestly would be undefeated right now had TJ Yates not been injured against Virginia Tech and they’re still a strong candidate to win the ACC title.

Pittsburgh Panthers

After week one’s awful loss to Bowling Green, I would have been very surprised to see myself putting Pitt here but this team has turned their year around. After a couple of slow starts, Pitt continued the improvement on defense that began last year and the emergence of Jonathan Baldwin in the passing game has made QB Bill Stull’s life so much easier. Star tailback LeSean McCoy also has to be grateful and Pitt is now the favorite to win the Big East.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Minnesota was 1-11 last season, including home losses to Bowling Green and D-1AA North Dakota State and now they’re 5-1 halfway through the season, with their only loss being in Columbus to Ohio State. That is improvement, my friends. Minnesota features a strong offense that relies on a lot of younger players and while Minnesota still has a long way to go in improving their stock to move into the Big Ten’s upper half, the Gophers are one of the first half’s feel good stories.

Ole Miss Rebels

All that needs said here is that the Rebels broke an SEC losing streak that stretched nearly three years by knocking off Florida in the Swamp. Wow! While the Rebels are far from a finished product, the dual upgrades of Houston Nutt as head coach and Jevan Snead at quarterback have been a boon to the Rebels. Despite some tough losses, Houston Nutt should have a bowl team on his hands a year after one of the worst seasons in school history.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Coach Paul Johnson’s offense has definitely been a huge story in Atlanta, especially with the Yellow Jackets’ hot start. However, an underrated element of his arrival is the improvement on defense. Georgia Tech has a tough group, including one of the better defensive lines in America, and is a threat in their division in the ACC. Another major consideration in the improvement surrounding this team is the removal of the ever-present sense of dread that surrounded every game under Chan Gailey. The players believe they can win every game and the fans are catching on. That, by definition, is improvement.

IMPROVEMENT IS IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER

Penn State Nittany Lions

Confused as to why I have my #2 team in the country listed here? Well, for starters the Nittany Lions should have gone into last year’s bowl season 10-2 after giving away games against Illinois and Michigan State. Penn State has had this talent and ability the last two years, they just have decided to screw up at the most inopportune moments. In fact, I would say the only improvement worth noting is at the quarterback position, where Anthony Morelli’s graduation was the best thing to happen to Penn State football since their 2005 Orange Bowl win.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Yes, the Commodores are a nice story. Congratulations on their first 5-0 start in 65 years. However, they were last in the SEC in offense AND defense before last week’s game and they beat an absolutely hapless Auburn offense (How is Auburn still ranked?). Furthermore, Vanderbilt has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of turnovers and blocked kicks that I have ever seen. Is Vandy better than last year? Yes, but most of their success can be attributed to providence instead of improvement. I will be surprised if the Commodores win more than two more games, especially considering that all three of their SEC wins have come at home.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Luckily, Notre Dame was so putrid last year that the media has thus far resisted its usual love affair with the Irish. While it is definitely fair to say that Notre Dame isn’t nearly as terrible as last year, I’m still not convinced that this team is any better than a seven win team. Look at their wins: All have been at home and they defeated a terrible San Diego State team in the opener, followed by a gift game from Michigan (7 turnovers?), a win over Purdue (the Big Ten’s 9 th best team), and a far-too-close 28-21 win over Stanford that featured Notre Dame nearly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Their only game against top 25 caliber opposition was a physical beating on the road against Michigan State. Talk to me after the season if Notre Dame beats UNC, Pitt, Boston College, or USC. Notre Dame’s schedule is the major improvement here.

Kentucky Wildcats

Congratulations to the Wildcats, who appear to have a decent defense this year, though I think that their close game last week against Alabama was more of the Tide’s doing than Kentucky’s newfound prowess. The Wildcats don’t really have much of an offense and their defense, which has played well thus far, has not sold me against a poor Louisville team, an overconfident Alabama team, and the sisters of the poor. Remember, this team nearly lost to Middle Tennessee State at home a few weeks ago.

Miami Hurricanes

Miami is NOT back. I thought after they played Florida tough in the Swamp that perhaps they would end up having a fairly decent year, but after back to back losses at home to UNC and Florida State, I’m thinking that Miami is only marginally better than last year’s not-so-good group. The Hurricanes are still a year away from turning into a legitimate competitor for the ACC title.

Oregon State Beavers

I thought long and hard before putting Oregon State here, so hear me out. Yes, Oregon State shocked the world by knocking off USC two weeks ago, but look at the rest of their results: Road losses to Stanford, Penn State, and Utah against a win versus Hawai’i. Oregon State suffered massive losses from last year’s team and haven’t been able to win one on the road. The Beavers finished 9-4 a year ago. They’ll be lucky to get to a bowl this year, even in a down year for the Pac Ten.

Florida State Seminoles

To continue the vein of teams that are not returned to glory, I present to you this year’s edition of Florida State. While the Noles made the smart move of benching Drew Weatherford, this team still isn’t much more than a talented team that will play hot and cold all year long. Look at their first three games against D-1A competition: lost 12-3 at home to Wake Forest before winning two road games and scoring lots of points. The Noles are better, but don’t get ahead of yourselves, folks. Remember, most of this offense is underclassmen.

Northwestern Wildcats

Northwestern is sort of like Vanderbilt, except their biggest wins were road victories. However, Northwestern was a 6-6 team last year that has improved a little bit. The biggest reason that I have them on this list is to preempt any excitement that comes around when people look at their record and go, “Wow, Northwestern is 8-1?” The Wildcats’ conference schedule sets up so that they miss both Wisconsin and Penn State, two of the conference’s top teams. Northwestern might be a good depth team in the Big Ten and could win nine games this fall, but don’t get too caught up with their record.

That brings us to the end of my midseason report card; Let us now lay back in our recliners and see where these teams go in the future.………

Speaking of the future, I have some picks to attend to. Last week was an excellent week for me, as I went a whopping 10-1 to finally make my season record respectable at 32-20. My only blemish was picking South Florida to hold off Pitt in a close battle. I got that part right, I just didn’t go with my gut to pick the right team. Well, no sense crying over spilled milk, it is time to move ever onward and upward, so here are my previews for this week’s excellent slate of games.

Clemson at #24 Wake Forest

Thursday, 7:30 PM EST

This game features a battle between two teams who have no idea what they’re doing this year. Clemson thought that they would be a top 25 team and instead have fallen flat on their faces in big games. Meanwhile, Wake opened the season looking like the class of the conference but then laid an egg two weeks ago against Navy. This is the type of game that Clemson isn’t expected to win right around the point in the season where people begin to talk about firing Tommy Bowden. Historically, the Tigers then go out and dominate whoever they’re playing. Well, Clemson isn’t expected to win this game and Tommy Bowden is sitting on a volcano. I have to go with the historical precedent here, folks, so I’m taking Clemson on the road.

Clemson 31, Wake Forest 23

#3 Texas versus #1 Oklahoma

Saturday, 12:00 PM EST

This is the definition of a playoff for a spot in the National Title Game. You listening, playoff proponents? This game and other like it wouldn’t mean nearly as much if we had a playoff system. Meanwhile, we’ve got a fantastic game between two early frontrunners for the Heisman Trophy in quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy. I have to stick with my #1 team here and take the Sooners in a close game because I think that their defense is going to hold up better in a high scoring game. However, this should be a very exciting game to watch and the two archrivals will definitely ratchet up the hitting all game.

Oklahoma 37, Texas 31

Arizona State at #7 USC

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

I wasn’t going to pick this game until I found out that both teams could be missing their starting quarterbacks. If that’s the case we could see a mess of a football game. Meanwhile, if Rudy Carpenter plays and Mark Sanchez does not, USC could be in for a fight. However, even if Carpenter plays and Sanchez doesn’t, I expect USC to prevail. I just think that it’ll be a closer game than people think. After all, we’ve seen USC struggle the last few years against inferior teams in the Coliseum (remember last year’s 20-17 squeaker against Arizona?). This one will be worth watching.

USC 23, Arizona State 17

Notre Dame at #18 North Carolina

Saturday 3:30 PM EST

Here’s an early test of my improved lists. Notre Dame and UNC are both 4-1 and both are flying high after big home wins. However, Notre Dame hasn’t run into a defense this physical since Michigan State and the Irish also must leave the friendly confines of their home field. This game should feature a lot of hitting by the UNC defense and Notre Dame is going to get a dose of reality after barely escaping it last week against Stanford. Jimmy Claussen won’t have a lot of time to throw and expect him to be forced into some mistakes. Meanwhile, Notre Dame would be wise to work on their punt protection units this week after UNC blocked three punts against UConn. To the delight of the home crowd, North Carolina wins this game.

North Carolina 30, Notre Dame 17

#15 Michigan State at #19 Northwestern

Saturday 3:30 PM EST

Michigan State had a hard-fought win last week to move to 2-0 in Big Ten play, but the bad news coming out of East Lansing was that many of MSU’s starters in the secondary were fighting injuries. That’s bad news for Sparty because last year Northwestern’s quarterback, CJ Bacher, shredded the Spartan defense through the air. However, Michigan State is a lot stronger and a Javon Ringer-led ground attack should keep Northwestern’s explosive offense off the field enough for the Spartans to win a big game on the road. Don’t expect them to be looking ahead to Ohio State because Northwestern is going to give them a battle. Michigan State holds on to move to 3-0 in the Big Ten.

Michigan State 26, Northwestern 21

 

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#13 Oklahoma State at #4 Missouri

Saturday 8:00 PM EST

We could seriously see a hundred points between the two teams in this game. Oklahoma State’s season low on offense is 39 points and Missouri’s is 42. In the league of quarterbacks, Chase Daniel might be the most talked about (for very good reason) but Zac Robinson is a very good quarterback in his own right. We will find out a lot about both teams, but I think that the Chase Daniel to Jeremy Maclin connection will prove too much for the Cowboys to handle in a high scoring game. Missouri’s defense holds the fort slightly better and wins a big home game.

Missouri 51, Oklahoma State 41

#8 Louisiana State at #10 Florida

Saturday 8:00 PM EST

What a matchup this will be. While I don’t think that the SEC is as deep this year top to bottom, both of these teams are definitely quite good. LSU is definitely a team that relies on a stout defense while Florida’s explosive offense has been a juggernaut all season. The Tigers are unbeaten and feel disrespected that the unbeaten defending national champion was jumped by a team in its own division in the rankings. However, the Tigers are fairly one dimensional on offense and despite a good performance by Jarrett Lee at Auburn a few weeks ago, I don’t believe that LSU’s offense will score enough on the Gators to beat them. Meanwhile, Tim Tebow and company don’t lose games unless the other team scores more than thirty points and I expect Florida’s great offense and strong kick return game to lead to a lot of points by the Gators. This game should be close for a while, but I expect the Gators to turn it on late and win this annual grudge match.

Florida 34, LSU 24

#2 Penn State at #21 Wisconsin

Saturday 8:00 PM EST

Wisconsin is reeling after losing the last two games by a combined five points. The Badgers are now 0-2 in Big Ten play and the season that they were hoping for is slipping away. Unfortunately, Wisconsin has to face one of the best teams in America this Saturday. Penn State comes to town for the second consecutive night game in Madison and the Badgers are going to be ready. Penn State will have to face a Wisconsin team that is going to fight as hard as they can to keep any shot at the Big Ten Title alive. However, Penn State is really talented and the Nittany Lions will be prepared to take advantage of Wisconsin’s inefficient pass offense by scoring early, controlling the clock and ending any Badger hopes for a Big Ten championship. Penn State cements its national reputation with a big win at Camp Randall Stadium.

Penn State 34, Wisconsin 23

By Matt Baxendell
CollegeSports-fans.com Staff Writer

Matt Baxendell is collegesports-fans.com’s newest staff writer. If you’d like to join his college football therapy group, email him at matt.baxendell @ gmail.com with all your questions, comments, and anything else you would like to share. Also be sure to check out Matt's 2008 conference previews and college football Top 25 rankings here at CollegeSports-fans.com!

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