THE WORLD OF BAX: BOWDEN, BCS, BEARCATS AND BRONCOS

I originally didn’t think that Bobby Bowden’s job status was a topic that I would be discussing in early October, but the whirlwind of mayhem surrounding Florida State at this point has led me to chime in on the nation’s most embattled coach.

Bobby Bowden’s Golden Coaching Years have not gone the way he wanted. His teams have struggled for the better part of the last decade and Florida State is no longer the elite football program that it once was. After a somewhat resurgent 9-4 season last year, Seminole Nation was hopeful for a big season before Coach Bowden’s expected retirement after the 2010 seaspm.

Unfortunately, things haven’t gone according to plan and FSU sits at 2-3, including a 0-2 ACC record. With one of Bowden’s worst starts ever, the vultures are circling. In fact, the head of FSU’s Board of Trustees publically called for this to be his last season on Sunday! However, I don’t think that Bowden is entirely to blame for the mess in Tallahassee.

First of all, there isn’t just one coaching staff at FSU, there are two. One side is largely on the defense, where coordinator Mickey Andrews and linebackers coach Chuck Amato are longtime veterans who Bowden trusts since they shared some much success in the past. The other is led by Head Coach In Waiting Jimbo Fisher, who is currently the offensive coordinator. Now, it would be easy to surmise that both sides of the ball could be kept under control by Bowden, who would be expected to be the team leader as the head coach.

But that’s not the case. Andrews, Amato and Fisher all have spurious ‘Associate/Assistant Head Coach’ titles that allow them to range outside of their particular areas of expertise and butt heads. Amato and Fisher reportedly hate each other and both see themselves as Bowden’s 2 nd in command. In short, it is a very bad environment that has only been exacerbated by Fisher’s recently acquired right to change his coaching staff as he see fits when he takes over, which means Amato, Andrews and the rest will be gone in a flash.

That said, Bowden has to share the blame. The man doesn’t coach during games, barely coaches during practice and is far more of a figurehead than even Joe Paterno, who at least is involved heavily in practices at Penn State. Bowden isn’t exerting the level of control that he needs to run a successful program and I don’t honestly think he has the desire to do so. In his mind, he’s set to coach this year and next year and then retire. Who’s going to tell him otherwise? The University President, who played for him 40 years ago? The masses of hypocritical fans who have cheered for him for decades? Simply put, Bowden is dead set on returning for another season while Fisher wants to clear out a large portion of the coaching staff and get going with his own program next season. Safe to say, this toxic situation could continue to smolder all season long and it certainly seems to indicate that a sad ending could be in line for one of the greatest coaches in college football history.

One more thing to all of the Florida State fans, alumni and boosters calling for Bowden’s head: Consider where your school was before he took over. Florida State was not far removed from being a women’s college and the football program was on the ropes. That’s right Florida State was considering eliminating the football program until Bobby Bowden arrived. Your football program’s only bragging point was that Burt Reynolds was a former player. Bowden took a school that was an afterthought on the national scene and turned it into one of the major programs in all of college football. He won you TWO National Titles when one was only a pipe dream when he was hired. Consider that this man isn’t just the face of your program, he’s the architect and the SOLE REASON that Florida State is what it is today.

Furthermore, Florida State’s entire academic profile and campus has benefitted from the attention that Bowden’s football success has brought. Does anyone realistically believe that FSU would have such a big student body or so much new construction were it not for the notoriety that comes along with a major football program? Florida State is a significantly bigger, better and more powerful university because of 34 years of Bowden-led success. You don’t just run a man like that off. So if Bowden stays next year, don’t complain, don’t whine that you’re not a national contender. Thank the man who took your Ford Pinto of a university and turned it into a Cadillac with decades of love and effort.

WHO SAID BOISE STATE SHOULD PLAY FOR THE BCS CHAMPIONSHIP?

When I read the idea of the Boise State Broncos playing for the National Title this week on a nationally recognized sports site, I nearly spat my drink out on my keyboard. Boise State, who won’t play more than one real opponent all season long, earning the right to play for the BCS Championship? It is a ridiculous notion and here is why:

Boise State will only play ONE BCS conference team all season long. Their 5-0 start comes against one BCS conference opponent (4-1 Oregon), two MAC teams with losing records (0-5 Miami and 2-3 Bowling Green), one conference opponent (1-3 Fresno State) and a D-1AA team (1-3 UC-Davis). That’s a combined record of 8-15! Yet the Broncos are ranked in the top ten of most major polls? Ridiculous.

But wait, there’s more! None of their remaining opponents are ranked in the top SIXTY in the Sagarin ratings, so it isn’t like they have the opportunity to further impress voters. Furthermore, let’s get a good look at their recent history. Boise State is a paltry 4-4 against BCS conference opponents in the past five and half regular seasons, which would put them in the middle of most major conferences during a single season’s campaign! Would a 4-4 Georgia or a 4-4 Washington (both of whom have beaten the Broncos in the last five years) get to play for the national title with that kind of record at the end of the year? Of course not, the thought is ridiculous. What isn’t ridiculous is the notion that both Washington and Georgia would beat Boise State this year! So why are the Broncos getting a pass?

But wait, they beat Oklahoma three years ago: Surely that earns them some cache, right? FALSE. In the past five seasons, that’s their ONLY bowl win! The Broncos are 1-4 in their last five bowl games, in which only two opponents were even ranked! Much-maligned Ohio State (whose record against BCS teams in the regular season is 24-6 since 2005, for the record) has gone 2-3 in their last five bowl games against significantly tougher competition (all five teams were ranked, four of those game were BCS bowls) but is written off after an extremely close loss in one of their NINE BCS conference games this year while Boise State gets a pass? By the way, the combined record of Ohio State’s five opponents is 14-9, a full seven wins better than Boise State’s! The Buckeyes are just one of a number of teams that could lay out a better recent resume than the Broncos.

In short, Boise State has a terrible recent bowl record, an average recent record against the proven top teams and doesn’t play a remotely tough schedule. They’re a 3-5 or 4-4 team in a BCS conference but people want to reward the Broncos for dominating what might be the worst conference in Division One football? Their resume SCREAMS Humanitarian Bowl but too many fans scream BCS because they beat up on the sisters of the poor. Look at the stats and see which bowl they deserve. If you think that they deserve to play a BCS Bowl, much less the National Title game, you’re simply ridiculous.

WHO SAID CINCINNATI SHOULD PLAY FOR THE BCS CHAMPIONSHIP?

This is a much more interesting argument. The Bearcats have opened up with a little bit tougher schedule than the Broncos, including a solid road win against Oregon State, and have a significantly tougher stretch run. Their 5-0 start at least includes two road wins against BCS conference foes with winning records (3-1 Rutgers, 3-2 Oregon State) but they’ve still got a lot to prove.

For Cincinnati to have a legitimate shot at earning a BCS championship berth, they have to finish unbeaten. There’s no way that an 11-1 Bearcat team jumps another other 11-1 team from a BCS conference. Protest all you want if you’re a Big East fan, but the other five power leagues simply have more clout in terms of respect on the field. That said, an 11-1 Cincinnati would have a significantly better argument than an unbeaten Boise State team. Cincinnati’s schedule includes NINE BCS Conference teams, one more than Boise State has played in the regular season since 2003! Cincinnati is measuring themselves against significantly stronger competition than the Broncos. If we’re comparing Cincinnati with Boise State, there simply isn’t any: The Bearcats should be the choice.

Still, I’ll be a bit surprised if Cincinnati wins any more than ten games. They have South Florida, Connecticut, West Virginia, Illinois and Pittsburgh left on their schedule and every Big East team on that list outside of USF have beaten the Bearcats during Brian Kelly’s first two seasons in the Queen City. But the fact that the Bearcats are challenging themselves against strong competition that includes two non-conference BCS foes gives them worlds more respect in my eyes than the pretender Broncos.

BCS ELIMINATION WEEK?

This weekend also features some major matchups that could easily eliminate some major contenders for the BCS Championship Game. The five biggest storylines of the week come when:

• Preseason darling Ole Miss faces Alabama with their BCS hopes on the line in Oxford. Alabama can’t afford a loss as they still have a very tough schedule down the stretch and Ole Miss is looking at the Cotton or Outback Bowls if they drop this game. The winner could vault unchallenged to the top of the SEC West standings and position themselves for a championship chase.
• Unbeaten Wisconsin brings their Big Ten Title hopes into Columbus, where the reigning Buckeyes will look to perpetuate their conference dominance while keeping their National Title hopes alive. A Wisconsin loss means that their BCS hopes are all but shuttered. Considering OSU’s 31-3 record in conference since the start of the 2005 season, it will be a tough task for the upstart Badgers.
• Iowa puts their unbeaten record on the line against surprising Michigan. A loss all but eliminates the Wolverines from the Big Ten Championship picture while an Iowa victory moves then halfway to a perfect season. The last time these two met in Iowa City, Michigan pulled out an overtime victory and this could be a very close game.
• Oregon has a major trap game on tap at UCLA. The Bruins have been very strong defensively and defeated two BCS opponents out of conference. Duck quarterback Jeremiah Masoli is questionable to play due to injury but he has practiced this week. After a slow start, he’s been their best player in each of the past two games. With USC, Oregon State and Stanford still on tap, Oregon’s Pac Ten hopes would be on life support with a loss.
• Finally, the biggest game of the weekend is undoubtedly Florida’s visit to Baton Rouge. While a loss here won’t entirely eliminate either team from both the SEC and National Championship chases, the winner immediately is validated as one of the favorites for the Crystal Trophy. Add in the intrigue surrounding Tim Tebow’s bruised melon and you produce the most interesting game of the week.

Last week was one of my toughest weeks all year as I finished with a 5-5 record. My average showing only brings me to 30-23 overall and I need to get back on track this week with a strong set of selections.

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#18 Nebraska at Missouri

Thursday, 9:00 PM EST

This is one of the most interesting matchups of the week as the winner immediately jumps to the top of the Big XII North standings. Neither team has really played a tough early schedule as Nebraska has pummeled three Sun Belt teams and lost by a single point at Virginia Tech while Missouri decked Illinois as their only major game. Missouri has a number of major advantages going into this game: Quarterback Blaine Gabbert is the nation’s highest rated passer and the Tigers have won their last three home games against the Cornhuskers. However, Nebraska is a significantly stronger team on defense and possesses a pretty good quarterback of their own. Normally, I take the home team on a Thursday night and rest easy but I think Nebraska wins this one in Columbia.

Nebraska 28, Missouri 20

Boston College at #3 Virginia Tech

Saturday, Noon EST

Boston College has done their usual job of exceeding expectations with their 4-1 start. After their 28-21 win over Florida State last week, it is really tough to tell that they’ve gone through so much turmoil off of the field in the last year. Their offense has also been solid thus far, scoring 28 points per game against D-1A foes. However, they’re playing in Blacksburg this week, where Virginia Tech has allowed an average of 11 points per game in three home contests this season! Expect the Hokies to refocus after last week’s so-so showing against Duke and knock off the Eagles with a shutdown defensive performance.

Virginia Tech 26, Boston College 16

#10 Auburn at Arkansas

Saturday, Noon EST

Whatever the over is in this game, take it. Auburn comes in averaging over 41 points per game while Arkansas enters with their offense producing at a 36 point per game clip! Neither team is especially strong defensively, meaning this game will very likely turn into a shootout. In the end, I think that Arkansas has more weapons at their disposal than Auburn and I know that Razorback QB Ryan Mallett is the better player. Furthermore, Arkansas has the home field advantage and I expect them to send their fans home happy with a victory.

UPSET ALERT: Arkansas 45, Auburn 38

#20 Georgia at Tennessee

Saturday, 12:21 PM EST

This game will likely decide the direction of each team’s season. Georgia is 3-2 and badly in need of a win to move ahead in the SEC East chase while Tennessee is 2-3 and badly in need of a win, period. There’s no doubt that Tennessee’s defense will be the best unit on the field in this contest and they will give Georgia’s struggling rushing attack fits. That said, Tennessee’s offense just isn’t very strong and Georgia should keep this game low scoring. I think that this will be a close, competitive contest, but I’m picking Georgia to win because of AJ Green, my current #1 player in the country. He will be spectacular at times and break the game in his team’s favor. Furthermore, Georgia has won a couple close games this season already while Tennessee has fallen short in every game they’ve played that has been decided by ten points or less. Add it all up and it equals a Georgia victory.

Georgia 23, Tennessee 17

#1 Alabama at Ole Miss

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

This game was circled on most fans’ calendars when the schedule came out as the defining early game in the SEC West. Alabama has been as impressive as any team in the country while Ole Miss collapsed under the weight of preseason expectations at South Carolina. I’ve read that a lot of people believe that Houston Nutt will turn his team around now that they’re the underdog, but I’m simply not buying it. Ole Miss’ offense has sputtered all season long and they’re not getting healthy against perhaps the best defense in the entire country. Alabama will walk out of Vaught-Hemingway Stadium with a strong victory over the Rebels.

Alabama 31, Ole Miss 16

#14 Wisconsin at #9 Ohio State

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

Wisconsin has always been a team that gives the Buckeyes fits. In fact, they’re only one of three Big Ten teams to win in Ohio Stadium since Ohio State’s National Championship season in 2002! However, the Badgers are looking for respect at this point after a 7-6 debacle last year. Furthermore, they’re the only 5-0 team in the country that isn’t ranked in every major poll! Clearly, I think a lot more highly of Wisconsin than the rest of the country and I’m certain that the Buckeyes do as well considering their come from behind 20-17 victory in Madison last year. That said, Ohio State has played one very similar offense to Wisconsin this season and that was USC. Clearly, the Badgers don’t have the same kind of talent (though tailback John Clay is one of the best in the country) and I would be surprised to see them score a lot of points considering how strong OSU’s defense has been all year. Meanwhile, Ohio State is the first ranked team Wisconsin’s maligned defense is going to play this year and I expect the Buckeyes to move to 3-0 in Big Ten play with a hard-fought victory over the Badgers thanks to a strong rushing effort.

Ohio State 24, Wisconsin 13

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#16 Oregon at UCLA

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

This is a scary game for Oregon, especially if Masoli doesn’t play. UCLA might struggle on offense but their defense is very stout. This game is going to be far closer than most observers tend to realize and UCLA has a legitimate shot at the Ducks. That said, I think Oregon is going to have to turn the ball over multiple times in this game and UCLA is expected to play without the nation’s leader in interceptions, sophomore safety Rahim Moore, due to a concussion. Furthermore, I think Masoli is going to play as he’s been practicing this week. Thus, I think that Oregon pulls out a tight road win to continue their resurgence from their opening day disaster.

Oregon 27, UCLA 20

#15 Stanford at Oregon State

Saturday, 7:00 PM EST

This is a key game for Stanford, who sits atop the league with a 3-0 record. If they can get past Oregon State, the Cardinal has a real shot at traveling to USC with a 6-0 league record as both Arizona schools are on tap after this week. In short, Stanford has scored a lot more points on offense and allowed a lot fewer points on defense. Oregon State usually improves down the stretch but I don’ think that they will have an answer for tailback Toby Gerhart and I expect the Cardinal to continue their hot start with a big road win.

Stanford 34, Oregon State 23

#21 Georgia Tech at Florida State

Saturday, 8:00 PM EST

This game will go one of two ways: 1) Florida State is truly discombobulated and will self-destruct against the Yellow Jacket attack or 2) Florida State will rally around their embattled coach and put forth a dominant effort against the Yellow Jackets. The problem is that I really don’t know which one is going to happen. That said, I’m going to lean toward the team rallying around their coach and protecting their home field against Tech and moving forward with a crucial home victory for their first ACC victory.

Florida State 27, Georgia Tech 24

Michigan at #4 Iowa

Saturday, 8:00 PM EST

This game will truly be a litmus test for both teams. Michigan has been impressive all season offensively but they struggled for much of the game last week against previously disappointing Michigan State. They struggled because MSU was the most talented defense they’d faced thus far and they were playing in a tough road environment with a team full of young players. Well, Iowa’s defense is significantly stronger than Sparty’s and Kinnick Stadium is every bit as loud and that doesn’t bode well for Tate Forcier and company. Meanwhile, Iowa has been dominant against BCS conference opponents but has struggled mightily against their two weakest opponents. In this game, there are two major mismatches: The first is Iowa’s running game against Michigan’s run defense. Iowa is going to run all over the place in this game because Michigan’s linebackers are undersized and don’t tackle well. The other major mismatch is Michigan’s running game against Iowa’s excellent front seven. The Wolverines only averaged a yard per carry last week and Iowa has one of the best defensive lines in the Big Ten. Meanwhile, if Tate Forcier has to pass more frequently, ballhawking safety Tyler Sash is going to be waiting. I like Iowa to grind out a dominant victory in this game thanks to some timely turnovers and a tough defense and continue their perfect season.

Iowa 24, Michigan 10

#8 Florida at #2 Louisiana State

Saturday, 8:00 PM EST

The final prediction is the game of the week. In short, Louisiana State has played a lot tougher schedule and beaten a much more impressive array of teams and that’s why they’re ranked higher. However, Florida is probably the better team and has the talent to dominate on both sides of the ball. Tebow or no Tebow, Florida is going to struggle to develop a downfield passing game against a stout LSU defense. Meanwhile, LSU’s offense has been impotent all year and that won’t change against a vicious Gator defense. This will be a low scoring game but I’m going to take the Gators due to their defense, which I believe will force a few turnovers. The winner of this game has won the last three BCS Championships: Can either of these teams make it 4 years in a row?

Florida 20, LSU 13

By: Matt Baxendell
Matt Baxendell is collegesports-fans.com’s football writer. Keep an eye out all fall for his multiple weekly articles discussing everything college football. If you want to get in touch with him, email him at Matt.Baxendell@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @MattBaxendell