THE WORLD OF BAX: SEPARATING THE PRETENDERS FROM THE CONTENDERS

My new rankings last week were quite controversial, to say the least. However, the point was to rank the highest achieving teams on the field through the first month of the season instead of either a) guessing who would win on a mythical neutral field or b) guessing if a team would finish the year at the spot that I had them ranked.

Thus, I decided the best way to follow it up would be to list whether I think the top 25 will maintain their lofty ranking or fall on their face by the end of the year. Thus, I’m going to assign three categories to each team.

• CONTENDER will mean that team is likely to maintain or rise higher than their current rank.
• OVERRATED will mean that team is likely to fall, but no further than 10 spots from their current rank.
• PRETENDER will mean that team is likely to fall more than ten spots from their current rank.

Seven Controversial Choices from My Top 25:

Iowa Hawkeyes, Current Rank: 2 nd,STATUS: OVERRATED Iowa will shock me if they finish 2 nd in the final standings. However, the Hawkeyes might have passed their toughest road test and are staring at the real possibility of a ten or eleven win season and that would put them in the top 12.

Florida Gators, Current Rank: 5 th,STATUS: CONTENDER Florida sat at five because they hadn’t yet played an elite opponent and they have some concerns at quarterback with Tim Tebow’s health. I think that the Gators are clearly a top five team with the potential to move right up. So relax, Gator fans, your team isn’t suddenly unappreciated because they haven’t blown people out by enough.

Houston Cougars, Current Rank: 8 th,STATUS: OVERRATED Houston has beaten two Big XII South teams that combined for 21 wins last season. That’s very impressive indeed. However, as good as they’ve been this year, they still have a tough schedule ahead, including a road trip to improved Mississippi State. Barring a collapse, Houston is going to remain in the rankings but I don’t think they run through their schedule unbeaten and that means they’ll fall down the rankings.

Miami Hurricanes, Current Rank: 12 th,STATUS: OVERRATED Miami has had a good start to the year but they’re not a top ten team. They’re likely to lose to Oklahoma this week and are probably going to float between 15 th and 25 th for the rest of the season. That’s still a heck of an improvement from last year and they’re still a prime contender in the ACC race.

Oklahoma Sooners, Current Rank: 14 th,STATUS: CONTENDER Much like Florida, Oklahoma hasn’t played a team I have ranked yet. Unlike Florida, Oklahoma has a loss, which understandably puts them far lower. That said, this Sooner team still is a solid bet to win at least 9 or 10 games this season and they’ll rise up the rankings if they beat Miami in South Florida this weekend.

Wisconsin Badgers, Current Rank: 19 th,STATUS: CONTENDER For now. Wisconsin has seemingly rediscovered the formula that earned Brett Bielema a 21-5 record in his first two seasons: Run the ball, protect the ball and play strong defense. The Badgers could be the surprise of the Big Ten after no one thought highly of them coming into the year. However, their only really impressive win came against struggling Michigan State at home and their contender status is very much at risk this weekend at Minnesota. Wisconsin needs to maintain their momentum this weekend or they turn rapidly into a pretender.

TCU Horned Frogs, Current Rank: UNRANKED,STATUS: CONTENDER TCU isn’t ranked because their only two wins came against horrifyingly bad Virginia and perpetually overrated Clemson. However, TCU plays great defense and it will be very interesting to see if they can continue their strong defensive showing into Mountain West play. If they keep winning, they’ll move up because I still have to give them props for two road ACC wins. Now, on to the picks…….

I had a decent week with my projections, finishing with a 6-5 record. However, I called upsets by Iowa and South Carolina and told everyone that ND’s win over Purdue would be close, so I feel good about a so-so week. That brings me to 25-18 overall and I think I’ll rebound this week!

Colorado at West Virginia

Thursday, 7:30 PM EST

It took Colorado three weeks to get into the win column after embarrassing opening efforts against average opposition. Meanwhile, West Virginia caught a lucky break when quarterback Jarrett Brown avoided major injury in the waning moments of their tough loss at Auburn. West Virginia has the home field and the far better team on a Thursday night, which means a big WVU victory.

West Virginia 45, Colorado 27

#22 Michigan at Michigan State

Saturday, Noon EST

This is going to be interesting because this matchup features the top two statistical offenses in the Big Ten. Michigan State is two plays away from a 3-1 start but late mistakes have them at 1-3. Their defense has become a surprising question mark after so many people thought so highly of them coming into the year. Meanwhile, Michigan’s defense has been extremely suspect all year and MSU’s Kirk Cousins is going to pass the ball on them all day. Furthermore, this is the first road trip for Michigan’s young offense and it will be very loud in Spartan Stadium. This is a coin flip rivalry matchup but I’m picking Michigan State to upset Michigan in East Lansing in a shootout.

Michigan State 41, Michigan 34

#19 Wisconsin at Minnesota

Saturday, Noon EST

Both of these teams have been impressive early and are coming off of wins in their Big Ten openers. Minnesota has a solid passing game that revolves around Eric Decker while Wisconsin is going to run the ball and rely on new starting QB Scott Tolzien to continue his effective passing. This rivalry game is typically a close one but I think that Wisconsin pulls out a tough road win here on the strength of their running game.

Wisconsin 27, Minnesota 20

 

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Air Force at Navy

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

While Army is better this year, this matchup will likely decide the winner of the Commander In Chief’s Trophy. Navy hasn’t been great in the early going but their only losses have come at Ohio State and Pitt, two tough places to play. Meanwhile, Air Force has had a similar spate of luck, losing a tough game at Minnesota. Navy has won this game the last six seasons but I think that changes this year as the Falcons win a low-scoring affair to put them in the jump seat for the CIC Trophy.

Air Force 20, Navy 17

#9 Louisiana State at #11 Georgia

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

This is a huge game. LSU is ranked as high as 4 th in some polls despite sitting dead last in the SEC in offense through September. The Tigers are coming off of a squeaker of a victory that required a goal line stand at bottom feeder Mississippi State and will lose badly if they play that poorly this week. Meanwhile, Georgia is minus nine on turnovers for the season but boasts a 3-1 record over very tough opposition. There are two keys to this game: The first is for Georgia to protect the football. They can’t keep turning the ball over and winning games. The second is for LSU’s offense to step up because they have been poor all season and they’re playing a Georgia team that has rung up some serious points this season and broke 50 last year in Death Valley. I’m taking the home team to outscore LSU’s surprisingly hapless offense on the strength of the country’s best wide receiver: AJ Green. Expect LSU to continue the streak of AP top 5 teams losing to a record 5 th consecutive week to begin the season.

Georgia 38, LSU 23

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#24 UCLA at Stanford

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

This is a very interesting game because the winner will have earned their 4 th win of the season and jumped atop the Pac Ten with a 2-0 record. UCLA has been great on defense all year but their offense stinks and is playing turnover machine Kevin Craft at quarterback after their starter was injured at Tennessee. Meanwhile, Stanford has been solid in the early going and would be unbeaten and likely ranked had they not blown a 2 TD lead at Wake Forest. I think that Stanford will line up and run the ball with Toby Gerhart a lot in this one and I think that Stanford’s offense will put up enough points to take the victory against the toothless Bruins.

Stanford 23, UCLA 13

Washington at Notre Dame

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

Notre Dame can’t keep sneaking victories in by the skin of their teeth, right? After last gasp victories against Michigan State and Purdue, Notre Dame really needs a solid performance to remotely cement themselves as a legitimately good team. Unfortunately, their defense is not very good and that is going to hurt them all season, starting this week when Jake Locker comes to town. I think that Washington is going to go into Notre Dame Stadium and stun the Irish on the strength of Locker’s dual threat abilities. He’s by far the best quarterback the Irish have seen this year and he’s going to gouge Notre Dame. The paper tiger in South Bend crumbles this week as the Huskies pull off the upset.

UPSET ALERT: Washington 38, Notre Dame 33

#16 Auburn at Tennessee

Saturday, 7:45 PM EST

This is going to be a really interesting game for a number of reasons. First of all, Auburn’s newfound offense is going to have to 1) face a real defense for the first time in 2009 and 2) take their show on the road for the first time all year. Tennessee really has a great defense but their quarterback play stinks. That said, the Vols held Florida to 23 points and I tend to think that they’ll have an easier time running on the Tigers, which should allow them to score some points. On a neutral site, I’d call this game a tossup but they’re playing in Knoxville at night and I think Eric Berry and company pull off the upset.

UPSET ALERT: Tennessee 23, Auburn 17

#6 Southern Cal at #23 California

Saturday, 8:00 PM EST

Before the season, I picked Cal in this game. If you had asked me last Friday who I would pick in this game, I wouldn’t have hesitated to say Cal. But then the Bears laid an egg in Autzen and I’m no longer as confident in their abilities. Furthermore, USC is going to rally around injured tailback Stafon Johnson, who was injured in a horrible weight-lifting accident this past week. I expect Cal to actually put up a fight this week but I’m taking the safe bet and picking the Trojans to win this one with their defense.

Southern Cal 24, California 21

#14 Oklahoma at #12 Miami

Saturday, 8:00 PM EST

There is some intrigue around this game as the rumors are flying out of Oklahoma that Heisman winning QB Sam Bradford will make his return. However, this game is pretty clear cut to me: Oklahoma’s defense is exceptional and will keep Miami from passing the ball all over the field. Meanwhile, Miami is vulnerable through the air and both Landry Jones and Sam Bradford will carve up this secondary. Even before Miami was beaten badly by Virginia Tech, I expected Oklahoma to win this one easily. After the beat down in Blacksburg, I am certain on this one. Oklahoma is going to win this game with ease.

Oklahoma 31, Miami 16

By Matt Baxendell
CollegeSports-fans.com Staff Writer

Matt Baxendell is collegesports-fans.com’s newest staff writer. If you’d like to join his college football therapy group, email him at matt.baxendell @ gmail.com with all your questions, comments, and anything else you would like to share. Also be sure to check out Matt's 2008 conference previews and college football Top 25 rankings here at CollegeSports-fans.com!

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