THE WORLD OF BAX: The Conference Power Debate

After four weeks of football and the majority of inter-conference play has been completed, I think that it is fair enough to offer up an early look at the relative merits of each conference. I decided to look at each conference and rank them based upon the strength of their depth. Thus, even though I have USC as my #1 team, the Pac Ten will definitely not be the #1 conference after opening so poorly. However, USC’s presence prevents the conference from falling behind the MWC despite the conference’s poor record in head to head play this fall.

Thus, here is what I have gleaned from the season’s first four weeks.

The Elite Conferences

1) Big XII - They've got quarterbacking AND defenses and are exceptionally deep, deeper than the SEC this year. I have 4 Big XII teams in my top 10 and Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State all provide really good depth. While SEC fans write off the conference because of the perception that the Big XII doesn’t play defense, I prefer to believe that their offensive firepower is so excellent that it simply overshadows the defenses. I’ll take the Big XII by a hair right now over the SEC.

2) SEC - They're very good, but they don't have the same depth this year as they have in years past and the conference, overall, has taken a step back in offensive play. Now, looking at Florida or Georgia, you wouldn’t notice it, but the quarterbacking in the conference isn’t very good outside of the top three or four. However, the SEC has a ton of talent and three top ten teams. Furthermore, Alabama (#12), Auburn (#15) and Vanderbilt look good. However, the SEC’s vaunted lower-tier depth (anyone can beat anyone on any day!) simply isn’t there this year. Arkansas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Tennessee are all disappointing or simply terrible and odds are that Kentucky won’t win more than a few games. The SEC is top heavy this fall.

Better Than You Thought

3) Big Ten - Ohio State lost badly at USC, so they're now a team that is somewhere between the 5th and 15th best team in America. I'll take that. Penn State and Wisconsin look great and are top ten teams, Illinois and Michigan State are dangerous and ranked, Purdue has shown more mettle than I expected, and Minnesota and Northwestern haven't lost yet. Overall, the Big Ten is having the much-improved season that I expected in the preseason.

Worse Than You Thought

4) Pac Ten - USC is excellent. In fact, they’re probably the best team in America. Remember that USC fans. But their conference is nowhere near them. I like Oregon still and Cal and Arizona State are at least decent, but they both have a bad loss on their resumes and beyond them, does any team scare you? UCLA's win over Tennessee is a good win but they've looked abysmal since. Jake Locker, one of the conference's best QBs, plays on a 0-3 team that is still worth watching. But there isn't a single team in this conference that will touch USC if the Trojans show up. The Pac Ten’s depth is really disappointing and they’ve really underachieved in conference play. The Pac Ten’s usual number of bowl eligible teams could be down this year.

5) ACC - Lucky for the ACC, Miami and North Carolina are better than expected it seems, else this would be a really tough year for the conference, though they've rebounded after an awful start to the year. Wake Forest is the clear class of the conference and Clemson still has a chance to rebound after their season-opening stinker against Alabama. However, the ACC has as many bad losses as the Pac Ten and there is definitely not a single team that would compete with USC or finish in the upper echelons of the SEC, Big Ten, and Big XII.

In Need of Realignment

6) Mountain West - BYU, Utah, TCU all are better than any team in the Big East aside from USF and perhaps Pitt. That's right. They're better than the Big East and the rest of the conference looks pretty decent as well in the early going. BYU or Utah seem to be the early favorites to break the BCS bubble this fall. Does the Holy War take on an even bigger significance this year?

7) WAC - Boise State and Fresno State would both give USF a run for their money and both would beat Pitt. Again, the WAC is better than the Big East. In fact, the WAC and MWC should combine their best teams and for a Western superconference and then they'd get an automatic BCS bid and fill the Rocky Mountain void between the Pac Ten and the rest of the country. Wait, that’s actually a good idea……

8) Conference USA - Well, ECU beat WVU and USF should have lost to UCF in the same week. I think that both teams are going to be the targets of a Big East team raid in the upcoming years. This could be the Big East's worst season ever. Tulsa is another very good team and while the depth isn’t great, the C-USA is having a pretty decent year.

9) Big East - Yeah, USF is pretty decent. But they’re the only ranked team, begging the question: Then who? Pitt? They had a good win over Iowa 21-20, but the Hawkeyes are in the bottom half of the Big Ten and Pitt is supposed to be the 2nd best team? Who else is there? UConn? 1-2 WVU? Louisville was stomped by Kentucky to open the year, though their win over Kansas State was a big help for the conference. The Big East also has the unfortunate distinction of bearing the country’s worst BCS team in Syracuse. The Big East had better start plans for expansion because the caliber of coaching is getting worse and Rutgers is going to start a lot of years 1-2 once Greg Schiano goes to Penn State in a year or two.

Now, to me, the gap between the Big XII and SEC this year and everyone else is huge, but I also think the gap between the Big Ten and everyone else below is equally big. There is a plenty of argument at the top and will probably fall along party lines, but there is really no question that the Big XII and SEC are the two best this fall. Meanwhile, the Big Ten boasts as many ranked teams as either and the national media laying off of the conference has definitely helped in allowing people to take an objective look at its merits. Meanwhile, the Pac Ten has little depth but boasts one of the country’s best, making them better than the ACC, which has been bad but has at least improved lately.

The idea that the Big East might be worse than THREE non- BCS conferences might be surprising, but remember all of the gloom and doom about the conference’s future after the defection of Miami and V-Tech? Well, it seems that this year is the year that it bears out to be true.

Now that we’ve enjoyed a quick retrospective of the early season play, its time to look forward and Week 5 means that most teams begin conference play. There are a lot of great games to look forward to and I can’t wait to watch them. I also look forward to seeing my record improve, which was a dismal 3-4 last week, brining my inglorious total to a paltry 17-15 mark.

#1 USC @ Oregon State

Thursday, 9:00 PM EST

USC is only playing its third game, which is pretty odd considering that this is week 5. So honestly, USC hasn’t begun to face the grind of the season yet. On the other hand, Oregon State has already lost two games, both on the road, and the Beavers were absolutely dominated by Penn State. Expect USC to do the same here. While the Trojans might struggle in conference play like they have the last two years, I highly doubt it will be in the conference opener coming off of a bye. USC wins this one big and washes out the bad taste of USC’s last trip to Corvallis in 2006.

USC 55, Oregon State 10

Minnesota @ #11 Ohio State

Saturday, 12:00 PM EST

Big Ten play begins with surprising Minnesota facing off against the Buckeyes in QB Terrelle Pryor’s second career start. The Gopher defense has definitely improved from last fall and QB Adam Weber is quite good but Ohio State returns their game-changing superstar this week. That’s right; Its (finally) Beanie time! Furthermore, Ohio State is a lot more talented than Minnesota and Ohio State would win this game without Wells. However, I think most Buckeye fans would rather not see Beanie on the bench the rest of the season and Ohio State is significantly better with him.

Ohio State 38, Minnesota 13

North Carolina @ #23 Miami

Saturday 12:00 PM EST

The Butch Davis bowl would be an even bigger game if UNC quarterback TJ Yates hadn’t been injured against Virginia Tech last week, an injury that likely cost UNC the game. Yates is out for a while with a hurt ankle and Miami is flying high off of a big win in Big XII country. Expect the Hurricanes to take advantage of a depleted Tar Heel offense and knock the Heels back to a 0-2 start in ACC play.

Miami 24, UNC 13

 

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Purdue @ Notre Dame

Saturday 3:30 PM EST

Notre Dame is coming off a 23-7 loss to Michigan State last week and looks to finish with a winning record against Big Ten teams when the Boilermakers come to town. While Purdue looks better than expected, Notre Dame is improved and this could be a very good game. I think that Purdue’s veteran offense will allow the Boilermakers to outscore an inconsistent Notre Dame offense, though the Irish wide receivers look very intimidating.

Purdue 31, Notre Dame 27

#8 Wisconsin @ Michigan

Saturday 3:30 PM EST

Wisconsin is a coming off of a nice rest after traveling out to California and the Badgers look to kick off Big Ten play with another win over Michigan. Meanwhile, the Wolverines haven’t progressed very much on offense and the defense doesn’t seem to be as strong as many people expected. Wisconsin is a clear favorite in this game and the Wolverines will have a lot of trouble slowing Wisconsin’s powerful rushing attack. Michigan starts what will be a long season in Big Ten play with an embarrassing loss to the Badgers.

Wisconsin 34, Michigan 17

TCU @ #2 Oklahoma

Saturday 7:00 PM EST

Texas Christian stunned Oklahoma three years ago in Norman and will look to repeat the feat this year. However, Oklahoma is significantly better than their 2005 edition and TCU is probably in for a long day. The Horned Frog defense is pretty good, but they’re not good enough to slow down the Sooners. Oklahoma wins this one going away.

Oklahoma 45, TCU 20

#12 Alabama @ #9 Georgia

Saturday 7:45 PM EST

The Crimson Tide has begun the season in impressive fashion, winning two big games away from Tuscaloosa in dominant fashion. Meanwhile, Georgia is coming off of consecutive road wins at South Carolina and Arizona State and has played well in their first four games. In this game, the key will be the play of the lines of scrimmage and Alabama is stronger on both sides of the ball. I expect this game to be a fairly low-scoring game and Alabama is my choice to knock off the Bulldogs on Saturday night.

Alabama 24, Georgia 20

Virginia Tech @ Nebraska

Saturday 8:00 PM EST

I’m sure that Nebraska fans are going to bill Bo Pelini’s first national game as a showcase that the Huskers are ‘back’, just like they did last year’s embarrassment to USC. However, I don’t think Nebraska’s offense will be able to answer the challenge of a tough Virginia Tech defense and V-Tech’s much maligned offense finally showed some signs of life last week. I’m picking Virginia Tech to win a close one here and pick up a big road win.

Virginia Tech 24, Nebraska 23

#16 Illinois @ #4 Penn State

Saturday 8:00 PM EST

This is a very telling game for both the Nittany Lions and the Fighting Illini. Penn State wants to prove that their early hype isn’t the byproduct of excessive hype and the Illini see a win as a big way to redeem themselves after losing a tough game to Mizzou to open the season. In this game, Penn State’s offense is exceptional and will score a lot of points and their defense will feed off of the Whiteout crowd on Saturday night. Illinois has a pretty decent offense and their defense is improving, but they don’t have the personnel to beat this Penn State team at night in Happy Valley. Look for the Lions to begin conference play with a roar and knock off the Illini.

Penn State 31, Illinois 23

By Matt Baxendell
CollegeSports-fans.com Staff Writer

Matt Baxendell is collegesports-fans.com’s newest staff writer. If you’d like to join his college football therapy group, email him at matt.baxendell @ gmail.com with all your questions, comments, and anything else you would like to share. Also be sure to check out Matt's 2008 conference previews and college football Top 25 rankings here at CollegeSports-fans.com!

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