THE WORLD OF BAX: Know Thy Enemy

At last, it is upon us: Conference play. Now, I know that a few oddities in scheduling have some teams around the country with a conference game on their ledger (or two, in the case of multiple ACC teams), but this is the weekend, by and large, that everyone gets going against their league rivals.

That means that we’re officially entering the second season of college football. Why do I say that? Well, the first three weeks mostly featured teams that rarely play each other! That means that coaches were reduced to scouting based on last year’s video and recruiting rankings. How coaches are realistically supposed to prepare for another team when there isn’t any video available is beyond me. Players also don’t have anything beyond newspaper stories to actually prepare for opponents, sometimes from across the country, which they’ve never faced before. Simply put, non-conference play is chock full of unknowns, uncertainties and a lack of familiarity.

Enter conference play. Every team knows what’s coming when they play a league foe. They’re extremely familiar with what that team wants to do and the athletes that they’ll face off against. Even the impacts of new systems in place or highly touted freshmen on the field are minimized since coaches have two or three games’ worth of video to study. There’s history, emotion and outright dislike that comes into play more so than almost any non-conference affair.

Now, in the early conference showings, we’ve already had some great examples: Look at Washington’s upset of USC: UW’s coaches knew exactly what to expect from USC since they used to coach there and they had two weeks’ worth of game tape to study and the players knew exactly what was coming because they’d faced off against the Trojans many times before. There was no intimidation because they were a familiar foe and USC was upset by a much lesser opponent because they knew what was coming.

The same thing applied in close games such as Texas-Texas Tech, Florida-Tennessee and Georgia Tech-Clemson. These teams know each other and have a history together, making conference play much more of a chess match between coaches and a war between players. Remember that some of these teams simply have each other’s number, despite what the rankings say.

Finally, there will be one more major factor in play this week: Renewal. Teams who haven’t had the best start to their season can put it all behind them and start fresh in conference play. Keep an eye on teams like Oregon, Michigan State, Oklahoma and Oregon State that have had early disappointments. They’re going to come out ready to play because they still have a chance at their biggest goal: Winning their conference title. Let the wars begin!

Well, I finally had a big week in my prognostications, finishing with an 8-3 record! I just wish I could have gotten credit for picking MSU and Washington, because both were double digit underdogs according to Las Vegas. That brings me to 19-13 overall so I think I’m just hitting my stride, having improved every week. Let’s see how I do this week!

#13 Ole Miss at South Carolina

Thursday, 7:30 PM EST

Finally, after four weeks Ole Miss plays a real opponent! After a dismal showing against an average Memphis team and a beatdown of a D-1AA patsy, Ole Miss enters big time play in one of the toughest ways: A Thursday night game at a SEC conference foe. Meanwhile, South Carolina has already played two BCS conference opponents and appears to have their offense working for the first time in the Spurrier era. Everything about this game screams upset for South Carolina at me: Home Thursday night game, significantly stronger opposition early in the season and they’re a major underdog. South Carolina upsets the Rebels.

UPSET ALERT: South Carolina 37, Ole Miss 34

#22 North Carolina at Georgia Tech

Saturday, Noon EST

This is going to be a very interesting matchup for one major reason: North Carolina was the first team to really give Tech’s offense trouble last year. In UNC’s 28-7 win, Georgia Tech was shut down in the run game and was forced to pass. Sound familiar? Teams are starting to figure out the Tech offense and since Josh Nesbitt is completely unable to pass the football, that’s not a good thing. I think that UNC’s solid defense is going to have another strong showing and defeat the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta.

North Carolina 24, Georgia Tech 17

Michigan State at Wisconsin

Saturday, Noon EST

This is probably the most intriguing Big Ten game this weekend among the five league openers. Michigan State has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in two consecutive weeks while Wisconsin has built up a 3-0 record on the strength of a weak schedule. Furthermore, I’m still surprised that Michigan State lost at Notre Dame last week as quarterback Kirk Cousins played an excellent game and clearly established himself as a dangerous player. While Wisconsin’s running game appears solid and new QB Scott Tolzien has surpassed expectations, one simple fact remains: Michigan State needs this game more than Wisconsin. That makes them a more dangerous team and I think they’re the more talented team anyways, so I’m picking the Spartans.

Michigan State 31, Wisconsin 21

Arkansas at #4 Alabama

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

This game is a litmus test for the Alabama defense. After dominating their first three games, they finally face off against a truly strong offense. Arkansas put up 41 points last week in a loss to Georgia and could be one of the Tide defense’s stiffer tests all year. That said, Arkansas’ defense isn’t very strong and I expect that Alabama’s offense is going to have a field day. Expect a great start in conference play from the Crimson Tide.

Alabama 34, Arkansas 20

#3 California at Oregon

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

This is a very dangerous game for the Golden Bears. Cal has suddenly vulnerable USC at home in two weeks, so there’s a bit of a worry that they’ll look ahead. Two years ago, Cal broke a losing streak at Oregon that stretched back to the 1970s, so you know that Cal isn’t going to have an easy time of it. On the other hand, Oregon has not been impressive thus far and quarterback Jeremiah Masoli is coming off of a 4 for 16 showing. Oregon’s defense is solid but as crazy as this sounds, I don’t think that the Ducks can score enough points to beat the Golden Bears. Cal wins a close one to move to 4-0 going into the all-important showdown with USC.

California 31, Oregon 23

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#8 Miami at #9 Virginia Tech

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

This might turn out to be the biggest game all season in the ACC. Miami has probably been the most impressive team thus far in the young season while Virginia Tech is coming off of an impressive win against ranked Nebraska. That said, Miami’s only apparent weakness is pass defense and Virginia Tech simply can’t pass the football. I think that Miami is going to make an enormous statement and beat Virginia Tech soundly and increase their ACC record to an incredible 3-0 before the end of September!

Miami 27, Virginia Tech 13

Illinois at #7 Ohio State

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

Before the season, I pointed at this game as the most dangerous on Ohio State’s Big Ten schedule. Well, I’m not going to be so brazen after Illinois stunk up the joint to start the year versus Mizzou and just lost their best defensive player, middle linebacker Martez Wilson, for the season. However, Illinois has been dangerous in Ohio Stadium in the last two decades and the last time they were there, they beat top-ranked Ohio State. However, I think that Ohio State’s defense is going to prevent the Illinois offense from putting up a lot of points and Terrelle Pryor and company are going to have another strong effort against a weakened Illini defense.

Ohio State 26, Illinois 13

 

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Arizona State at #15 Georgia

Saturday, 7:00 PM EST

This is a mildly intriguing intersectional affair. Arizona State is 2-0 but hasn’t played anyone of note while Georgia is 2-1 but hasn’t played any defense all year. That said, ASU’s defense doesn’t appear to be very impressive and Georgia is going to score a lot of points. While the Pac Ten has performed well against the SEC in the past, I don’t see Arizona State coming close in this one.

Georgia 45, Arizona State 24

#25 Notre Dame at Purdue

Saturday, 8:00 PM EST

Notre Dame finishes their stretch of play against Big Ten opposition by visiting Purdue. While I’m really not sold on the Irish and have some serious questions about their defense, which has allowed 68 points in the last two games, Purdue is coming off of a loss to Northern Illinois and I can’t pick them to win this game. However, with Jimmy Claussen hobbled and Michael Floyd out for the season, the Irish should be very careful with this game, especially with a talented tailback like Ralph Bolden at Purdue’s disposal. This will be a much closer game than people expect and Notre Dame had better come ready to play or they will get upset.

Notre Dame 34, Purdue 31

#18 Iowa at #5 Penn State

Saturday, 8:00 PM EST

This is the game of the week after Miami-Virginia Tech. Iowa is 6-1 against Penn State since 2000 and ruined their national title hopes last season in a shocking November upset. Remember what I said about some teams having another team’s number in conference? Well the Iowa-Penn State game embodies that concept. Furthermore, Iowa has defeated a Pac Ten team and a Big XII team in the past two weeks while PSU has underwhelmed while beating up on weak opposition. I think Iowa is far more prepared for this game than Penn State and I think that Iowa is in great position to pull of the upset. I’m picking the Hawkeyes to continue their ownership of the Nittany Lions.

Iowa 23, Penn State 17

Texas Tech at #19 Houston

Saturday, 8:00 PM EST

This is a huge game for the Cougars. After Tech impressed at Texas last week, this is going to be an even tougher game for Houston. Furthermore, Texas Tech won’t be overlooking Houston like Oklahoma State was two weeks ago. Finally, Texas Tech’s defense was far better than I expected against the Longhorns and I think that Case Keenum will have some trouble putting up huge numbers. I think that the Red Raiders end the Cougars’ BCS-busting hopes this week.

Texas Tech 38, Houston 31

By Matt Baxendell
CollegeSports-fans.com Staff Writer

Matt Baxendell is collegesports-fans.com’s football writer. Keep an eye out all fall for his multiple weekly articles discussing everything college football. If you want to get in touch with him, email him at Matt.Baxendell@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @MattBaxendell

More college football articles from Baxendell:

• College Football Preseason Top 25 & National Title Contenders
• 2009 college football conference previews