THE WORLD OF BAX: CALIFORNIA DREAMING

It has been a tumultuous first two weeks for the BCS conferences. Some have struggled mightily against the other BCS conferences (The Big East is 0-3 and the ACC is 2-4). Others have failed against non-BCS opposition (the Big XII has lost FIVE games to non-BCS teams!) and some have managed to simply muster solid but unspectacular intersectional records (the Big Ten is 4-3 and the SEC is 3-2). However, one conference has had a strong early beginning and that league is the Pac Ten. Through two weeks, the Pac Ten has a 4-2 record against BCS competition, including a strong showing last week with wins at two of the country’s most difficult road venues in Knoxville and Columbus.

Thus, after a massively successful opening to the season, this is the Pac Ten’s chance to make a definitive statement as one of the country’s best conferences. Much like the Big Ten in Week 2, the Pac Ten has an enormous opportunity ahead as they face off against four BCS conference teams (2008 Big East Champ Cincinnati, Big Ten contenders Iowa and Minnesota and Kansas State of the Big XII) along with last year’s BCS buster, Utah. Then factor in a very important conference game between USC and Washington in Husky Stadium in Seattle and you can see how many big games are on hand for the league.

This week affords the conference the opportunity to notch wins over the Big East, Big Ten, Big XII and Mountain West and could allow the league to become the only in the country to defeat a team from each of the other BCS conferences AND the soaring Mountain West this season! Furthermore, it would establish the Pac Ten as one of the few conferences in the country with multiple national title contenders in the early going. Safe to say, this could be a very big week for the West Coast.

Well, my predictions got better last week but I still only finished with a 6-4 record. That brings me to 11-10 overall so I really need to get going in the selection category. On to the previews!

#19 Georgia Tech at #14 Miami

Thursday, 7:30 PM EST

This is an enormous game for both teams because the winner moves to 2-0 in ACC play and earns a tiebreaker against a division rival before September is even over! Miami was embarrassed on national television by the Yellow Jackets last season as Tech rang up 472 rushing yards en route to a blowout win. This fall, Miami appears to have a much stronger offense and their defense will certainly perform better. While I fully expect Miami’s defense to give up some points to the Tech option attack, the Hurricanes are stronger on the ground than they are through the air and should manage to slow the option. On top of that, I wasn’t impressed by Georgia Tech’s near implosion against Clemson last week and I’m concerned that faster defenses have begun to figure out their running game. Furthermore, this is a road Thursday game that Miami specifically requested after last season’s debacle and that leads me to believe that this is going to be a Hurricane party in Florida. Expect lots of scoring but Miami will win this game on the strength of Jacory Harris’ passing.

Miami 41, Georgia Tech 31

#24 Boise State at Fresno State

Friday, 9:00 PM EST

This is not your usual WAC pushover game for the Broncos. Fresno State played exceptionally well in taking Wisconsin to double overtime last week and is an extremely athletic team. Furthermore, the Broncos don’t get to play this game in the protective cocoon that is their Smurf Turf home digs and that makes a big difference. This will be a close game but I’m not so sure that Fresno State has improved enough to catch up to Boise State after losing 62-10 last season. Smart money goes on the Broncos here but you can bet a lot of people will be rooting for a Boise State loss because this is probably the last time this year that they have a realistic chance of losing.

Boise State 32, Fresno State 27

#4 California at Minnesota

Saturday, Noon EST

This is Cal’s final and most difficult non-conference test. The Golden Bears have run roughshod over their first two opponents while Minnesota has pulled out late victories over middling Syracuse and Air Force. However, Minnesota’s run defense has been solid and Jahvid Best could be slowed by the Gopher front line. That said, I think Kevin Riley will be the difference in this game because Minnesota will sell out to prevent Best from beating them and they’ll be vulnerable through the air. Expect Cal’s secondary to slow Minnesota’s super-talented Eric Decker in the passing game and Cal should leave the Land of 10,000 Lakes with a big victory and a 3-0 record.

California 38, Minnesota 21

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Tennessee at #1 Florida

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

Florida has been waiting for this game for a very long time. Lane Kiffin must not have seen Urban Meyer call multiple late timeouts while blowing out Georgia last season just to rub it in after the Bulldogs’ endzone pileup celebration two years ago. If he had, he’d have known better than to infuriate every single person involved with Florida football by falsely accusing Meyer of cheating in recruiting. As for real football analysis, Meyer is 4-0 against Tennessee in his tenure and the most recent matchup resulted in a 30-6 Florida win. Tennessee has a solid defense but their offense flat out stinks so you can expect Tim Tebow to get the ball a lot. While I’m not going to predict a 70-0 romp like some pundits, this is still going to be a blowout win for the Gators at home.

Florida 45, Tennessee 10

#2 USC at Washington

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

USC needs to be careful because this is the quintessential trap game. They’re coming off of a huge victory and their starting quarterback and best defensive player are both banged up. They have to travel to face a team that struggled last year but is now coached by a bunch of former USC assistants. As for Washington, they’re 1-1 but gave #9 LSU far more than they wanted in a 31-23 loss on opening day and quarterback Jake Locker is a dangerous runner and passer. Furthermore, you know that the Huskies have had this game circled on their calendar all offseason while USC didn’t even think about this game until Monday. That all adds up to a much closer than expected game but I think that the Trojans continue their winning ways this week.

USC 27, Washington 21

 

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#23 Nebraska at #8 Virginia Tech

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

These two teams met in Lincoln last year and Tech won a wild 35-30 decision. This fall, Nebraska has a new quarterback and a much stronger defense while Tech is improved across the board. Simply put, whoever protects the football will win this game. I think that this will be a much lower scoring game than last year’s showdown but I think that Tech will take advantage of home field and ride a strong running game to a huge non-conference victory as two very good defenses collide.

Virginia Tech 20, Nebraska 13

Michigan State at Notre Dame

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

This is an enormous game for both teams. Both lost last week on last second plays and are staring at a 1-2 start if they don’t perform. However, the pressure is really on in South Bend as Charlie Weis is only 1-3 against MSU and the Irish have lost six consecutive games against the Spartans on home turf. Notre Dame will have to rely on their passing game more this week if they hope to score some points because MSU is much stouter against the run than Michigan. As for the Spartans, sophomore Kirk Cousins should now be the unquestioned starter and that’s a great indicator that their offense will be much more consistent. I like the Spartans to slow Notre Dame’s running game and I think that Notre Dame’s defense is massively overrated. That means Cousins should pick them apart and I’m picking the Spartans to win their 7 th in a row at Notre Dame Stadium.

Michigan State 31, Notre Dame 24

Arizona at #21 Iowa

Saturday, 3:35 PM EST

This is a very interesting game. Arizona’s coach, Mike Stoops, is an Iowa alumnus and has quietly put together a solid 2-0 start. Meanwhile, Iowa rebounded well from a huge scare in week one to blow out rival Iowa State and is flying high heading into this contest. The Hawkeyes will have to deal with Arizona’s explosive tailback, Nic Grigsby, who has over 300 yards rushing in his first two games but Iowa should be very strong against the run and I can’t see him exploding this week. On the other side of the ball, Arizona’s defense will have to prepare for a multidimensional attack from Iowa as freshman Brandon Wegher stepped up and ran for over 100 yards last week after Iowa struggled on the ground in the opener. I think that Arizona’s strategy will be to run Grigsby as much as possible because this will be quarterback Matt Scott’s first road start and he’s been an effective game manager instead of a game breaker. With better quarterback play, a stronger O-Line (especially if Brian Bulaga plays), the better defense and home field advantage, Iowa has too many things going in their favor for me to pick against them in this contest.

Iowa 24, Arizona 17

#18 Cincinnati at #22 Oregon State

Saturday, 6:45 PM EST

Cincinnati has blown out their first two opponents but they haven’t yet faced a team of Oregon State’s caliber. Despite the Beavers’ struggles at UNLV last week, they’re traditionally a strong home team and the Rodgers brothers should provide a major boost on offense. This will be the biggest test of the young season for both teams’ rebuilt defenses but I think that the Bearcats are better positioned to slow down Oregon State. Expect some scoring in this game but the defending Big East champs are going to leave Corvallis with a huge win.

Cincinnati 35, Oregon State 28

#13 Georgia at Arkansas

Saturday, 7:45 PM EST

I said before the season that this was a scary game for Georgia. Well, after their performance in their first two games, I’m officially putting the Dawgs on upset alert. Their defense hasn’t been impressive since 2005 and Ryan Mallett and company are going to put up points. UGA’s quarterback had a big week last week but turned the ball over too much and Georgia is starting to run into injuries as well. Frankly, Georgia is lucky to not have started 0-2 after losing the turnover battle and being outgained last week against South Carolina. Factor everything together, including an extra week of preparation for Arkansas, and this appears to be a Razorback victory in the making.

UPSET ALERT: Arkansas 37, Georgia 31

Texas Tech at #3 Texas

Saturday, 8:00 PM EST

Texas finally gets their chance for revenge after a last-second Tech victory cost the Longhorns an undefeated season and a berth in the National Title game. However, Tech had to replace a lot of last year’s stars while Texas brings back nearly everyone. Now, I’m not going to say that Tech won’t put up a lot of points, because they always do. I’m just going to say that Texas is going to come out and beat up on the Red Raiders early in both teams’ first real game of the season. Texas exorcises their demons this week and gets a big win.

Texas 45, Texas Tech 31

By Matt Baxendell
CollegeSports-fans.com Staff Writer

Matt Baxendell is collegesports-fans.com’s football writer. Keep an eye out all fall for his multiple weekly articles discussing everything college football. If you want to get in touch with him, email him at Matt.Baxendell@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @MattBaxendell

More college football articles from Baxendell:

• College Football Preseason Top 25 & National Title Contenders
• 2009 college football conference previews