THE WORLD OF BAX: The Eyes of Texas Are Not Smiling

Plus: The National Title and BCS Bowl Picture

I’m afraid that the BCS now finds itself immersed in yet another controversy, this time before the final rankings are even released. Despite Oklahoma’s ten point loss to Texas on a neutral field, the Sooners find themselves playing for the Big XII and most likely the National Title. Texas, despite having the same record as the Sooners at 11-1, has the depressing task of watching a Big XII Title Game which features two teams that they defeated by double digits.

However, don’t blame Oklahoma or bring up past failures in BCS games because of this. Oklahoma, by Big XII rules, is the South champion, there’s no arguing that. The Big XII, unlike the other conferences which feature a conference title game, used the BCS standings as the only tiebreaker to break a three way tie. In the ACC or SEC, the BCS standings would have been used to eliminate the lowest ranked team (Texas Tech) and then head to head play would have been the tiebreaker between the two remaining teams, giving Texas the BCS berth.

Now Texas finds itself in a significantly different position that Georgia was last season. The unofficial ‘Georgia Rule’ that voters imposed last season in dropping the Bulldogs from #2 late in the year despite not losing was a correction factor because the Bulldogs didn’t win their conference or their division. However, Georgia had lost by three touchdowns to the team that they tied with (Tennessee) and couldn’t present a legitimate argument for playing in their title game. Georgia couldn’t argue with the system (there was no three way tie) last year while Texas certainly has a legitimate complaint. If Oklahoma falls flat against Missouri, Texas could easily find themselves playing for the National Title.

On to the National Title chase, which has become quite simple now that we’ve reached the final week of the regular season. Here is each of my top five’s chances to play for the Crystal Football.

• Alabama – Alabama simply has to beat Florida in the SEC Title Game to qualify for the National Title Game as the consensus #1 team in America. Their chances at beating Florida have also improved thanks to injuries to Percy Harvin and a couple of starting defensive linemen. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: Very Realistic But Still Against the Odds
• Florida – Florida continued its roll by romping Florida State in the rain. However, the Gators face their first elite team all season (I’m sorry but wins over Miami, LSU and Georgia don’t count as elite) and it will be interesting to see how they really stack up. After all, Alabama hasn’t played an elite team at this point either. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: Win and They’re In
• Texas – Texas has the remote possibility of their fans’ dream scenario: Oklahoma gets ahead of them in the polls and then falls flat on their face, opening up Texas’ road to the National Title. Quite unlikely, but it is really all that Longhorn fans have to hold on to. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: In the Unlikely Hands Of The 9-3 Missouri Tigers
• Oklahoma – Oklahoma just has to knock off a three loss Missouri team that lost to 7-5 Kansas last week to get an all expenses paid trip to the National Title Game. Considering the roll they’re on and the two dominating wins over Missouri last season, Oklahoma is a huge favorite to play for the Title. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: Win and They’re In
• Penn State – Penn State versus USC in the Rose Bowl could turn out to be an interesting conundrum for voters, especially if the winner of the National Title turns out to have one loss. According to what standard does a one loss Florida or Oklahoma definitively deserve to be crowned a National Champion over a one loss PSU or USC after the Rose Bowl? Both Penn State and USC are really good teams that could have a legitimate argument after January 1 st. Could provide some interesting fodder for voters in the AP Poll….. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: ZERO

Now that we’ve looked over the National Title scene, we move on to the final edition of BAX’s BCS BOWL PREDICTIONS!

National Title Game: Florida (SEC Champ) versus Oklahoma (Big XII Champ)

Rose Bowl: USC (Pac Ten Champ) versus Penn State (Big Ten Champ)

Fiesta Bowl: Texas (At Large) versus Ohio State (At Large)

Orange Bowl: Boston College (ACC Champ) versus Cincinnati (Big East Champ)

Sugar Bowl: Utah (Non- BCS Qualifier) versus Alabama (At Large)

Now, the major assumptions that I am making here (outside of automatic tie-ins) are:

• Oklahoma will defeat Missouri in the Big XII Title Game.
• Texas will be the Big XII’s second choice over Texas Tech.
• The Sugar and Fiesta will replace their conference champions in the National Title Game with teams from their respective conferences (Alabama and Texas).
• The Fiesta will select Ohio State with the first at large selection, leaving Boise State out.
• The Sugar Bowl then chooses Utah, leaving Cincinnati to go to the Orange Bowl.

Italicized teams above have already officially clinched BCS berths, so as you can see there is definitely a lot of wiggle room left in both the selections and actual bowl matchups themselves. The only major shakeup that is possible at this point would be an unfathomable USC upset at the hands of UCLA, bringing Oregon State back into the picture.

Last week was a great week as I went 7-3 on my picks; I now sit at 73-44 on the year. The highlight of my predictions last week was my pick of Georgia Tech to upset Georgia in a high scoring game dominated by Tech’s rushing attack. Picking games isn’t easy to do so when I luck out and pick a game to go exactly the way it went, I get to gloat just a tiny bit. However, this week brings forth five conference championship games and a few other intriguing affairs, so if I’m going to finish off the regular season with a flourish I will have to choose wisely…

MAC Championship Game: #12 Ball State vs. Buffalo

Friday, 8:00 PM EST

This game is all about Ball State, though Buffalo breaking through for a surprising winning season is a nice story. Simply put, this game should be as big of a mismatch as a game between a 12-0 team and a 7-5 team is expected to be. Ball State sits one win away from a perfect season and is a much more talented team. Expect the Cardinals to roll early in this game and win the MAC crown.

Ball State 38, Buffalo 17

#20 Pittsburgh @ Connecticut

Saturday, 12:00 PM EST

Pitt has a very good chance to lock down the Big East’s #2 slot in the bowl pecking order with a win over the Huskies. Furthermore, the Panthers would keep alive hopes for a ten win season with a win. Meanwhile, UConn is 7-4 but hasn’t really looked any good aside from a stunning win over Cincinnati more than a month ago. I’m picking the hot team here and the Panthers should ride the McCoy and strong defense formula to their 9 th win of the year to close out the regular season.

Pittsburgh 27, UConn 17

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C-USA Title Game: East Carolina @ Tulsa

Saturday, 12:00 PM EST

The only conference title game that isn’t played at a neutral site means that ECU is going to be at a disadvantage going on the road against the Golden Hurricane’s potent offensive attack. In the preseason, I picked ECU to win the conference title while Houston won a tiebreaker over Tulsa to represent the West. That would have been the case had the Cougars managed to defeat Rice last week. Thus, I’m pretty confident that I read the conference well in the preseason and ECU in recent weeks has begun to look like the team that started the year so strong. I’m taking the Pirates to knock off Tulsa but expect a lot of fireworks in this game.

East Carolina 41, Tulsa 38

Army vs. Navy

Saturday, 12:00 PM EST

The tradition continues in one of the country’s biggest rivalry games. Though both teams don’t affect the National Championship like they used to, this game is still worth watching for the pomp and circumstance and the sheer patriotism involved. Every single one of the players in this game represents all that is great about America and college football. That said, this game should also be more competitive than in recent years. Navy is still the big favorite but Army is far more competitive than in recent years. I’m still picking the Midshipmen but expect this to be an exciting game.

Navy 28, Army 20

ACC Championship Game: #23 Boston College vs. Virginia Tech

Saturday 1:00 PM EST

At the beginning of the year, I predicted that Virginia Tech would win their division and play for the ACC Title. I also predicted that Boston College would finish last in their division. Whoops. Talk about a difference in expectations from the start of the year! Now, these two teams have faced off once this year already, a narrow 28-23 victory for the Eagles in Chestnut Hill. Boston College enters the rematch on a four game winning streak while Virginia Tech has won three of their last four. That said, Virginia Tech has struggled all year on offense while Boston College’s defense has stepped it up in recent weeks. Boston College will do just enough to get the job done in this game but this game should come right down to the wire. After all, neither team has been blown out all year (Tech’s biggest loss was by 10) and Boston College’s last three ACC wins were all by ten points or less. Expect a workmanlike conference championship for the Eagles.

Boston College 24, Virginia Tech 20

SEC Title Game: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Florida

Saturday 4:00 PM EST

Finally, this game is here. The most hyped regular season matchup since the 2006 Ohio State- Michigan game was resolved three weeks ago and both teams have been playing very well since then. Florida will be favored because of their explosive offense and absurd margins of victory the past two months. However, Alabama features a great defense and runs the ball very well. Factoring in Florida’s injury issues (Percy Harvin will not be 100% if he even plays and a number of linemen are injured) gives Alabama a much better chance and you have to think that the #1 team in the country is pretty angry at how many people are dismissing them in this matchup. That said, I’m taking the Gators. Alabama won’t be able to score with the Gators and I think that Florida is pretty much guaranteed thirty points every week. I expect Alabama to hang tough for three quarters but Tim Tebow’s offense will hit a back-breaking big play late to seal the game for the Gators.

Florida 31, Alabama 21

#6 Southern California @ UCLA

Saturday 4:00 PM EST

Here’s how confident USC is going into this game: They’re willingly sacrificing a timeout per half to wear their home cardinal jerseys on the road to renew the rivalry’s tradition of both teams wearing their primary jerseys. This hasn’t been done since 1982 but it is definitely a cool tradition. It is also a slap in the face of a rival, something that certainly isn’t wise. While USC is definitely the better team, the arrogance of willingly giving up a timeout will definitely dominate Rick Neuheisel’s preparations with his team. That said, I think Pete Carroll has nothing to worry about here since UCLA is quite poor on offense and USC’s defense is the best in America. USC wins this old school matchup with an old school beat down in the Rose Bowl.

USC 34, UCLA 6

South Florida @ West Virginia

Saturday 8:00 PM EST

West Virginia continues the trend of uniform shenanigans as they will be wearing their road white jerseys in star quarterback Pat White’s last home game. Furthermore, the stadium will be a ‘white out’ of 60,000 West Virginia fans for senior night. If that’s not enough, USF has beaten WVU in two consecutive years and the Mountaineers will be out for blood. Pat White will go down in WVU history as one of their greatest (if not the greatest) players and his final home game will be one final show for all of the WVU faithful who will find themselves in position to give him a rousing send off. Expect WVU to roll in this game.

West Virginia 37, USF 21

Big XII Title Game: #4 Oklahoma vs. #18 Missouri

Saturday 8:00 PM EST

Like the ACC Title Game, this is a rematch of last year’s conference championship but unlike last year, the Tigers aren’t nearly as dangerous and come into the game as a significant underdog. Missouri was the #1 team in the country last year before having their National Title dreams ruined and would love to do the same to the Sooners. Unfortunately, Missouri can’t play defense worth a hoot and Oklahoma features an absolutely devastating offensive attack. Furthermore, Oklahoma has to be aware that a close win could cause more voters to compare them to Texas and move the Longhorns ahead, something that could still allow Texas to jump the Sooners. So, expect Oklahoma to play some serious defense (think the Texas Tech game) and they won’t blow their chance to play for the National Title. This game will get ugly early before Missouri puts up some points in garbage time.

Oklahoma 56, Missouri 31

By Matt Baxendell
CollegeSports-fans.com Staff Writer

Matt Baxendell is collegesports-fans.com’s newest staff writer. If you’d like to join his college football therapy group, email him at matt.baxendell @ gmail.com with all your questions, comments, and anything else you would like to share. Also be sure to check out Matt's 2008 conference previews and college football Top 25 rankings here at CollegeSports-fans.com!

More college football articles from Baxendell:

• College Football Top 25 Rankings after Week #14
• 2008 College Football Week #14 Preview
• College Football Top 25 Rankings after Week #13
• 2008 College Football Week #13 Preview