THE WORLD OF BAX: BON VOYAGE COACH BOWDEN and THE MOTHER OF ALL PREVIEWS

There are so many exciting games and storylines to follow this weekend that I can’t wait to get started! However, the departure of Florida State’s long-time legend, Bobby Bowden, is the unquestioned headline of the week and that deserves first billing.

Bowden was a unique character in college football. The combination of his folksy charm (dadgum!) and the excellence of his coaching staff produced a juggernaut heretofore unseen in college football: 14 straight seasons with top five finishes! As a comparison, USC’s dominant run this decade will end this season at seven, only half of the length of Florida State’s amazing stretch. I would posit that this will go down as college football’s equivalent of Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak: A record that will likely never be broken.

Unfortunately, recent years hadn’t been kind to the Seminoles. Their offense broke down under son Jeff’s charge and the old coach was forced to watch his son resign in disgrace. As Florida State wound down their 3 rd season with six losses in the past four years, it was hard to ignore the circling vultures. However, the straw that broke the camel’s back was probably Florida State’s non-competitive showing against archrival Florida, a 37-10 loss. It was that game that took the decision on whether to return next season or not out of Bowden’s hands.

I have a real issue with the way things went down. Bobby Bowden took Florida State from an afterthought program to a school which forced you to take them seriously! Long before Fresno State, Bowden’s mantra of ‘anytime, anywhere’ brought the Seminoles to the forefront of the national consciousness. He won two National Championships, 383 games and was the face of the university for thirty three years! Now, I understand that his last few years have been mediocre but the Seminoles have gone bowling in 28 straight seasons! When Bowden’s partner in longevity, Joe Paterno of Penn State fame, went through a tough three year stretch, his team missed two bowl games! Yet Penn State’s administrators didn’t have the clout to remove a living legend and Paterno’s staff changes have now produced 50 wins in the last five years!

It also wasn’t like Bowden was trying to hold on for the rest of his life: Next year was the final year on his deal and even he admitted that he had planned to finish his career in 2010. I would be a bit more understanding if Bowden wasn’t still bringing in top recruiting classes and his mismanagement was costing a championship-caliber team wins. However, that’s just not the case. In the grand scheme of things, one more season would have been a good way for the old coach to celebrate his accomplishments while making a run at a respectable final year with a talented returning team.

The fact that Florida State forced him out is nothing less than a shame that smacks of ingratitude. Without Bowden, the de-facto patriarch of Florida State football, the Seminoles would be a regional power instead of a household name. I can only hope that when Joe Paterno’s time comes to step down at Penn State that the transition is handled in a much better manner.

Bobby Bowden deserved better.

CARLOS DUNLAP: AN EXERCISE IN STUPIDITY

Let me give you a hypothetical scenario: You’re a superstar player on one of the two best teams in the country. It is Tuesday night the week before the biggest game of the season. What are you doing? I know what my answer would be: Resting up and preparing to be at my very best.

Unfortunately for the Florida Gators and their fans, Carlos Dunlap’s answer was to get so drunk that he passed out at the wheel of his car with the vehicle in drive. Now, the decision to drive drunk was a boneheaded choice no matter what day of the week it was or who the opponent was on Saturday and I’m certainly not going to buy anyone claiming it was ‘youthful indiscretion’. However, the decision to be out partying at three in the morning on a Tuesday night when the SEC title game was only a few days away is absolutely shocking.

Hey Carlos, it is a good thing your dad is a bail bondsman because I think everyone else in Gainesville is so furious with you right now that you wouldn’t have been able to get the money together to get sprung. Your poor decision has very deservedly cost you the right to play in the biggest game of the season. You know all that hype you’ve received for possibly being a top ten pick in the draft? Kiss it goodbye: NFL teams aren’t going to pony up to pay you elite money. Sure, you’ll still get picked but you won’t see the huge money that top of the draft players get because every team is going to question your commitment and decision-making after this incident.

Heck, you’ll be lucky if one of your teammates doesn’t pull a (rumored) Jimmy Claussen and punch you in the face for your selfishness. If I were you, I would be praying that your team can pick you up and beat Alabama because if they don’t, you’ll be remembered not as the guy who won the defensive MVP in last year’s title game but as the guy who cost the Gators a shot at back to back championships.

HOW TO FIX NOTRE DAME (BESIDES ACTUALLY HIRING A GOOD COACH)

Obviously, Notre Dame has dropped the ball with their last three coaching hires (though I think it could be argued that Tyrone Willingham didn’t get a fair shake considering how successful Charlie Weis was with his recruits) and if the Irish make another poor choice then they’re going to remain an afterthought to everyone but their huge and misguided fan base. However, a good coaching hire for the first time in nearly two decades isn’t the only thing that needs to happen in South Bend.

Let’s get one thing straight: Notre Dame is a football program that operates with a 1940s mindset. Their recruiting classes get the infamous ‘Lemming bump’ (in which noted Irish homer Tom Lemming makes every player recruited by Notre Dame an automatic 4 star player) to sell magazines, their boosters believe that their independent status and NBC infomercial of a game broadcast make them the elite of college football and their fans expect nothing less than a yearly national championship.

Ain’t gonna happen under the current setup, folks. Let’s face facts: Notre Dame hasn’t truly chased the national championship since many of today’s recruits were babies and they haven’t won the national championship since before any of today’s recruits were born! The only superpower in the country that has a longer current draught between titles is Penn State but the Nittany Lions have been in the chase numerous times (and should have shared the 1994 championship) since Lou Holtz left South Bend. With only a national title to chase as a tangible result for the fans, I think it is time for Notre Dame to set the bar a little lower.

By that I mean it is time for Notre Dame to revisit joining the Big Ten. Joining the Big Ten would make Notre Dame a much more consistently competitive team throughout the season. What has happened to the Irish every year when they fall out of the national chase after they lose a game or two? Their players get unfocused and end up losing games to teams like Navy, Syracuse and Connecticut. In short, all that they’re left with is the motivation to win another one of Notre Dame’s five dozen rivalry trophies and that just doesn’t hold sway with today’s athlete.

A possibility of a conference championship gives the fans something else to root for once their team loses a game or two and is out of the national title chase. The possibility of a division championship would continue to give their players focus and purpose even if they lose early in the year. Look at other teams in that part of the country: Ohio State might have lost an early game this year to USC on home turf (just like the Irish) but the Buckeyes refocused on the Bi g Ten championship and finished the year with a solid 10-2 record. Meanwhile, Notre Dame simply self-destructed and finished 6-6. From a competitive standpoint, Notre Dame NEEDS to join the Big Ten.

But what about the big-money deal with NBC? Doesn’t that bring in too much money to justify moving to the Big Ten? FALSE. Last year, a study was done by the Orlando Sentinel on the total revenues for every athletic department in Division One college football. Guess what it found? Notre Dame’s athletic department had the 16 th highest revenues in the country, which would put it 5 th in the Big Ten! Even worse, the Irish only finished about a million dollars ahead of Michigan State and Iowa, which would have put them on the precipice of competing with the likes of Illinois, Minnesota and Purdue from a fiscal standpoint! Aren’t the Irish supposed to try to be the elite in college football? Well, that won’t happen when Wisconsin and Penn State are making more than $10 million per year more than they are!

What does this mean? It means that Notre Dame is actually leaving money on the table by stubbornly and narcissistically clinging to their Independent status. Even worse, it is hurting them on the field because their players continually lose focus in the 2 nd half of the season. Thus, I think that the best thing that the Irish can do (aside from actually hiring an excellent coach, for once) is to get over themselves and join the Big Ten.

While joining a competitive conference won’t fix all that ails the Irish, I certainly don’t buy into the gloom and doom that many have towards their program. I get it: South Bend is cold, the city is lily-white and the academics are tough to deal with. That certainly hasn’t held them back from recruiting well! Even if you factor in the over inflation of their past classes, Charlie Weis cleaned up in recruiting!

What Notre Dame needs more than anything is an attitude adjustment. Get to a 2010 mindset, join a conference, partner with the Big Ten to move the league into the modern era with a championship game and watch as Notre Dame becomes a premiere brand once more on the field.

THE (UNIFORMED) NON-FOOTBALL THOUGHT OF THE WEEK

Every time I hear about an athlete’s indiscretions in the media, I usually shake my head and laugh, even though it isn’t really funny. Long ago I disposed of any expectations for faithfulness from men who have legions of beautiful women throwing themselves at them because they can throw a football or dunk a basketball. My general rule was: Cheater until proven otherwise.

Obviously, there were notable exceptions to this rule. The Troy Polamalus, Mario Lemieuxes, Danny Wuerffels, Tim Duncans and Tim Tebows of the world gave me hope that the widely-disseminated stereotype of famous athletes as womanizers didn’t hold true.

However, I found myself shockingly sad when I heard about Tiger Woods’ admission of martial issues. This was Tiger Woods, the guy who had been built up as being above the public idiocy that comes with celebrity! He was a stone-cold killer on the golf course and a solid human being off of it. He had a beautiful wife who seemed to care for the spotlight even less than he did, two beautiful young children, a labyrinth of extremely profitable endorsements and a notable lack of tabloid discussion. To me, he was as solidly grounded as any famous person I had ever seen.

So when the story came out that Tiger had been cheating on his wife for nearly three years, I was just sad. One of the supposed truly good guys of the sport had made a mistake that I never EVER would have expected from him and now he’s just another on a long list of disappointments as a personal role model for so many people who put him up on a pedestal. In fact, he’s among the worst because he built up this false reputation of being above the fray and it turns out that he’s not.

With that in mind, I’m making a new rule/promise: When I have children, I’m not going to let them grow up looking towards their sporting heroes as role models for anything other than seeing what hard work can do for them in life. I’M going to be their role model by being the best husband that I can be to their mother (which shockingly includes keeping my marriage vows) and the best father I can be to them, because the usual litany of morally bankrupt sporting heroes won’t cut it for my progeny.

I hope Tiger gets his life straight, I really do, but he’s nothing more than a really good golfer to me now.

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THIS WEEK’S PICKS

All right, I’m off of my soapbox: On to the previews! I had my first losing week of the year since opening weekend as the emotion of rivalry weekend threw off a ton of my picks: I went 7-9! Ugh. Thus, my season record is now 83-57 overall and I need to go into the bowl season with some momentum! Can I pick the champions of seven different conferences correctly this weekend?

#16 Oregon State at #8 Oregon: The Civil War

Thursday, 9:00 PM EST

This is one of the true rivalry gems in college football. While the game has been overshadowed this week by the law firm of Bowden, Dunlap and Woods, I know that I cannot wait for these two hated rivals to meet on the field. While the Ducks are the favorites heading in, keep this stat in mind: The last ten games in the series are split evenly, with each team taking five victories. I also wouldn’t count the home field in the Ducks’ favor either: Each of the last two games has gone to the visiting team.

As for the matchup on the field, I really think that both sides are coached by two of the best in the entire country. Chip Kelly’s first year has been a testament to the idea that it doesn’t matter if you get knocked down, it matters that you get back up with a vengeance. His team has improved by leaps and bounds since the season began. Meanwhile, you can say the exact same thing about Mike Riley, who has made a habit out of fashioning his team into a 2 nd half machine in recent years. Heck, in my preseason Pac Ten preview, I picked the Beavers to be two wins better than I expected them to be based off of their roster alone out of respect for Riley’s excellence. Expect both teams to be more than well-prepared.

Right now, the best player on the field will be Oregon’s quarterback, Jeremiah Masoli, who is the definition of dual threat. However, the Ducks are significant better rushing than passing and tight end Ed Dickson is really the only elite receiving threat, though they have a few guys that can get behind defenses. The Ducks’ O-Line also has had protection issues, though they’re excellent in the option run game. They’ll have to be at their best against the Pac Ten’s number one run defense.

Oregon ’s offense rightfully gets credit as a major catalyst for their success but despite some recent struggles, their defense has also been improved this season. The Ducks have a strong pass rush, though their inside tackles are undersized. Oregon has had some issues in the defensive backfield with injury as well, so they’ll want to slow the rushing game and get to the quarterback quickly against the Beavers.

Meanwhile, Oregon State has been on a roll and are winners of six out of their past seven games! The Beavers have a diverse offense, led by Sean Canfield, who has jumped up the NFL draft boards this year after stepping in for the injured Lyle Moevao. The famous tiny Rodgers brothers have also been stars again this season and it will be interesting to see how the Beavers fare after missing both against the Ducks last year. Expect this offense to put up some serious points.

The Beavers have a stout defense up front and as I mentioned above, are the best statistical rush defense in the Pac Ten. However, they’re going to have to commit extra men to slow down Masoli and LeMichael James and that could open up the passing game deep for Jeff Maehl and company. Oregon State will need to force some turnovers against the Ducks’ powerful offense if they want to win this game.

So, who wins the Pac Ten and earn a spot in the Rose Bowl? I think that this game will come down to Oregon State’s ability to slow down the rushing attack. Last season’s game featured approximately two miles of rushing yards from the Ducks and the Beavers need to be a lot more stout to earn their first Rose Bowl berth in 46 years. Alas, I believe that the Ducks’ prolific attack will be just enough to quack by their hated rivals and I predict that Oregon will hold on for their first Rose Bowl in sixteen years.

Oregon 33, Oregon State 31

Ohio versus Central Michigan

Friday, 8:00 PM EST, Detroit

Here’s a fun fact: If Frank Solich wins this game, he’ll have led his new team ( Ohio) to a conference championship quicker than his old team ( Nebraska) has won one without him! What a poor decision to get rid of him………

Anyways, I don’t think his team has a great chance in this one. Their defense is quite good (by MAC standards) but the Central Michigan offense has succeeded against much better units this year. The Chips are simply the best team in the conference and unless we see a shocking pile of turnovers (like last year’s title game upset of Ball State), Central Michigan will close out Dan LeFevour’s career with a MAC Championship.

Central Michigan 27, Ohio 10

#23 West Virginia at Rutgers

Saturday, Noon EST

The Mountaineers have some extra motivation in this game: With the imminent retirement of former head coach Bobby Bowden at Florida State, a Mountaineer win could give them a chance to match up with Bowden in his final career game in the Gator Bowl! Meanwhile, Rutgers has quietly put together an eight win season despite two high-profile losses and would dearly love a chance at a ten win season. However, West Virginia is simply a much better team and they should put the Scarlet Knights away with relative ease.

West Virginia 26, Rutgers 17

#24 Houston at East Carolina

Saturday, Noon EST

Despite being played at East Carolina, this game is for the C-USA Championship. These two teams have reached this point for far different reasons: Houston has scored more than 200 points MORE than ECU but the Pirates have allowed over 100 points less than the Cougars! Suffice to say, whichever team’s philosophy guides the game will likely emerge victorious.

And that team will be the Houston Cougars. Simply put, no one has slowed them down this year and East Carolina has only exceeded Houston’s 45 point per game average twice this entire year! Yes, ECU is a very good team but I can’t imagine Patrick Pinkney leading them to enough points to give the Cougars a major test.

Now I know a few East Carolina fans might argue that this game won’t turn into a shootout because of their defense. However, I present to you Exhibit A: 401 yards, 3 touchdowns. That was Houston QB Case Keenum’s stat line last year in Greenville against the Pirates in a 41-24 Houston win over the eventual conference champions. Expect a similar result for Keenum and a C-USA Championship for Hosuton.

Houston 38, East Carolina 28

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#4 Cincinnati at #10 Pittsburgh

Saturday, Noon EST

This game is going to either make me look like a genius or a nincompoop. I’ve been picking Pittsburgh to win for a month and I’m not changing my mind in the week leading up to the game. In fact, the added specter of the widely anticipated hiring of Cincy coach Brian Kelly by Notre Dame only lends more credence to my belief that Pittsburgh will win the Big East.

Why is that? Well, for starters the Panthers have a dominating rushing attack, more than good enough to keep the explosive Bearcat offense on the sidelines. Sure, Cincinnati will score some points but when they’ve faced decent defenses this year ( West Virginia, Oregon State) their numbers have been rather mortal. Meanwhile, the Panthers have a better defense than either of those teams and will be the best that the Bearcats have faced all year.

Furthermore, Cincinnati’s defense has left a lot to be desired in the past few weeks. They’ve been lit up by an average UConn offense and a poor Illinois group that was among the worst in the Big Ten! I think that Pittsburgh’s excellent freshman tailback Dion Lewis will draw Cincinnati defenders up to the line and then Bill Stull will take advantage by finding star receiver Jonathan Baldwin deep. Baldwin doesn’t get enough credit nationally, but he’s every bit of the threat that his more hyped classmates at Alabama (Julio Jones) and Georgia (A.J. Green) seem to receive on a weekly basis.

Factor in the looming specter of a snowstorm that could hurt Cincinnati’s passing game and a raucous home field advantage in Pittsburgh and my only really logical conclusion from all of this is that the 2009 Big East Champions will be the Pittsburgh Panthers.

UPSET ALERT: Pittsburgh 27, Cincinnati 17

Arizona at #15 Southern California

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

An interesting fact: Arizona has played USC extremely tough in each of the past two years, losing twice by a single touchdown. In fact, USC hasn’t scored more than 20 points against the Wildcats since 2005! With the Trojans’ offense struggling this year, it could be a very interesting showdown in the Coliseum to close the conference season in the country’s most competitive league.

However, I’m leaning towards USC to win their 9 th straight against the Wildcats for two reasons: The first is that USC’s defense looked excellent last weekend against archrival UCLA, flying to the football and forcing turnovers. The other reason is that I think that the Trojans really needed to reload mentally during the off week leading up to the UCLA game after struggling with injuries and diminished results for the first time in years. In short, I believe that the Trojans are starting to get their proverbial ‘swagger’ back and that should show.

But don’t count Arizona out. While I’m picking the Trojans, Arizona’s excellent passing game has the potential to do some damage and if they hit a few big plays, all bets are off. Furthermore, it took two unbelievable strokes of bad luck for the Wildcats to lose at Washington and Cal this year and this team could easily be 9-2 heading into this game. Finally, Arizona’s defense is underrated nationally and will give Matt Barkley trouble if the Trojan running game doesn’t get going. This game will be close but I can’t imagine USC losing on Senior Day.

USC 20, Arizona 16

#12 Georgia Tech versus Clemson

Saturday, 8:00 PM EST, Tampa Bay

The ACC Championship Game has lost a lot of its luster after both participants lost to middling SEC teams last week. However, I think that we learned more about Georgia Tech than we did about Clemson: Tech’s defense simply isn’t very good, especially against the run. Georgia ran the ball all over them to the tune of more than 300 yards and exposed a unit which has allowed far too many points this year.

On the other side of the coin, Clemson’s defense also had an off week in their loss to South Carolina. However, Clemson has been much more consistent this season on the defensive side of the football and has allowed far fewer points than their rivals from Atlanta.

The final piece of the puzzle is their ACC-opening affair from early September, which saw Georgia Tech jump out to a huge 24-0 lead that was squandered before the Yellow Jackets kicked a late game-winning field goal to hold on at home for a 30-27 victory. I remember that game vividly because Paul Johnson pulled out a few razzle dazzle plays to build the lead before Clemson clamped down halfway through the 2 nd quarter and dominated the rest of the game. Since that game, the Tigers have improved measurably, especially tailback C.J. Spiller, who only rushed for 87 yards in that showdown, while I think that Tech is pretty much the same team I saw that night.

In the end, you know both teams are going to score a lot of points. However, I’m picking the Tigers to follow Georgia’s lead and pound the ball early and often with one of the country’s best tailbacks and that should be a strong formula for victory. I can’t believe I’m doing this but I’m actually picking Clemson to win a big game. Yikes! The Tigers are my choice to win the ACC Championship and play in the Orange Bowl in January.

UPSET ALERT: Clemson 34, Georgia Tech 31

#3 Texas versus #19 Nebraska

Saturday, 8:00 EST, Dallas

This has recently been the most lopsided championship game in the country as the South Division has won six consecutive Big XII Championships! Whether the North Division Huskers can get off the schneid and upset Texas in a game that was once defined by upsets (four of the first eight champions were underdogs) depends completely on their ability to force the Horns into making turnovers.

The fact that the Huskers have Ndamakung Suh anchoring their defense is a pretty good starting point. In fact, Nebraska’s defense has become nationally prominent for the first time since the Solich era this season as they’re only allowing an average of eleven points per game! That’s exceptional.

Unfortunately for the Huskers, their offense can be as terrible as their defense is terrifying. Six times this season, they’ve scored 20 points or less and are averaging only 25.5 points per game! Unsurprisingly, the Huskers’ biggest wins have come in games where their defense has absolutely suffocated their opponents (see: 10-3 over Oklahoma and 17-3 over Kansas State) for the entire game.

And that’s not likely to happen against the Texas Longhorns, who are averaging 43 points per game this year! The Longhorns have only been held under 34 points in one game! Even worse for Nebraska, Texas also plays excellent defense and is only allowing 15 points per outing! In short, the Longhorns are dominant on BOTH sides of the football.

Thus, the only conclusion that I can make for this game is that Nebraska’s defense will have to force turnovers to give their offense the chance to score any points. Furthermore, they’ll need a herculean effort like we saw in their win over Oklahoma to even keep this game close. Nebraska might be dominant on defense but their offense stinks.

In the end, I see Texas clamping down on the Husker attack and holding them to a few field goals. Meanwhile, Colt McCoy is going to make plays and the Longhorns will have enough points to win at halftime. The Husker offense just isn’t good enough to win this game on their own and the Longhorns offense protects the ball too well to give it away.

Texas wins the Big XII and the right to play for the National Title.

Texas 27, Nebraska 9

#1 Alabama versus #2 Florida

Saturday, 4:00 PM EST, Atlanta

While I usually list my picks in chronological order, this game gets an exception. This is the biggest regular season game since the 2006 Ohio State-Michigan game, also the last regular season matchup between the #1 and #2 teams in the country. This is the game that people have been anticipating for literally two months and the winner will take home the SEC crown and a chance to play for the National Title.

Having watched a lot of Florida games this year, the most effective way to defend their offense has been to force Tim Tebow to make plays. While that sounds idiotic on the surface as Tebow is one of the best players in college football, let me expound: The goal is to try to make Tebow move the ball up the field in small bursts instead of hitting big plays. That gives defenses a better chance to get the Gators off of the field.

Remember the struggles that Florida had at Mississippi State? Tebow’s receiving options were blanketed and the Gators had trouble sustaining drives. The defense was largely suggested by Tebow’s former coach turned MSU head boss Dan Mullen and it unsurprisingly Captain Gator had his worst game of the year. See, the dirty little secret about the Gators this year is that they’ve given up a ton of sacks, so if you have guys who can tackle Tebow (and believe me, Bama does) then you can force the Gators to throw and that allows Alabama unleash their very dangerous pass rush.

Meanwhile, Florida’s defense has no holes. Except, of course, at defensive end where Carlos Dunlap’s presence will be missed. There are a lot of talented linemen in Gainesville but none of the remaining players can command a double team every play like Dunlap. I would be stunned if Alabama didn’t try to run the ball at Dunlap’s replacement early and often.

While we’re discussing Alabama’s offense, I have to say that I’ve been impressed with Greg McElroy’s poise during the stretch run. He’s begun to show the ability to make plays when needed and Julio Jones and Colin Peek have become legitimate weapons. This is on top of their ability to run the ball with Heisman candidate Mark Ingram and stud freshman Trent Richardson. Simply put, Alabama will try to run the ball down Florida’s throat and keep Tebow on the sidelines.

So in the end, how will this game play out? I think that both defenses will be dominant in this rematch of last year’s conference championship. Alabama will be able to stack the box up front to stop the run because they’ll trust their backs to be able to cover Florida’s receivers one on one. That will force some sacks and I think Florida loses the turnover battle.

However, I think that Florida will make some plays and get into the end zone more than the Crimson Tide. That’s largely because I think that the Tide will kick a bunch of field goals as they’ve struggled in the red zone this year. However, I do expect Alabama to control the clock for much of the game. In the end, the difference will be a long Crimson Tide drive that consumes a ton of clock that ends with a game-winning field goal from the always-reliable Leigh Tiffin that sends Alabama to Pasadena to play for the National Championship as SEC Champions.

Alabama 19, Florida 17

By: Matt Baxendell
Matt Baxendell is collegesports-fans.com’s football writer. Keep an eye out all fall for his multiple weekly articles discussing everything college football. If you want to get in touch with him, email him at Matt.Baxendell@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @MattBaxendell