THE WORLD OF BAX: What Happened to Notre Dame?

Plus: The National Title and BCS Bowl Picture

When a football team blows a 13 point lead at home to one of the worst teams in college football, you know that fans are going to have a meltdown. When that team’s fans start pelting their own players with snowballs, you know that their fans have lost their patience. When that football team is Notre Dame, well, things can get downright ugly.

Notre Dame is the most polarizing team in college football, far more than Oklahoma, Ohio State, or any SEC team. Notre Dame is absolutely loved by their massive fan base and loathed by nearly everyone else and the reasons why this is the case really aren’t a big surprise. After all, Notre Dame has their own TV network deal and gets paid by the BCS even when the Irish don’t make a BCS bowl! Furthermore, it doesn’t help Notre Dame’s cause that they claim to hold themselves to a higher standard than anywhere else, a claim that hasn’t been backed up on or off the field in a long time.

So, how do you fix Notre Dame? Many people will react right away and say that Charlie Weis has to be fired. Honestly, they’re probably not wrong. Weis is currently overseeing the worst two year run in school history. However, I don’t agree with them for two major reasons. One is that people have quickly forgotten that Weis’ first two years in South Bend produced two BCS games. The other reason is that if Notre Dame wants to truly hold themselves to their supposed higher standard, then they need to reach back to their own tradition and give Weis his fifth year. Before the awful decision to fire Tyrone Willingham after only three years, every single coach was given five years, at a minimum.

That said, Charlie Weis has definitely been a major part of Notre Dame’s issues. Weis came to Notre Dame as a proud alum with NFL credentials and promptly led the Irish to two BCS bowl games. He was extremely popular because his arrogance and clear belief in Notre Dame’s superiority resonated with their fans. Weis also reeled in some highly rated recruiting classes, the surest way outside of winning all your games to keep your job and retain your favor with boosters and fans alike.

However, that hasn’t worked out for two reasons. One is that Weis has shown himself fairly incapable of developing talent, especially on the defensive side of the football. The other reason is that Notre Dame’s recruiting classes are perpetually overrated because ranking Notre Dame high and putting it on the cover of your publication sells a lot of magazines. Notre Dame simply isn’t that talented, especially on defense, right now.

In short, what Notre Dame finds themselves stuck doing is keeping Weis on for another season despite his shortcomings. Though I think that he’s probably not going to show much improvement next year, his return is incumbent for Notre Dame to continue claiming that they hold themselves to a higher standard. Firing Weis now just proves that their just another football factory and a poor one at that.

It would also be unfair to just blame Charlie Weis for Notre Dame’s struggles. No, I’m not talking about blaming Tyrone Willingham either, though Notre Dame fans unfairly place him somewhere between Chairman Mao and Judas Escariot in their hearts. Simply put, unless Notre Dame can bring in a truly great coach (Urban Meyer seems to be nearly everyone’s top choice), the Irish are set up for failure as a major football factory on the level of Florida, Oklahoma, Ohio State, USC, and a few select others.

Why would I say that a school which has every resource imaginable available be set up for failure? First and foremost are the insane expectations that their fans have. Notre Dame fans were saying in August that they felt ten wins this year wouldn’t be unreasonable, maybe even eleven. They seemed to completely forget last year’s 3-9 disaster. Whenever Notre Dame brings in a new coach after next season, he would be well advised to preach patience at his introductory press conference. Notre Dame fans need to realize that this isn’t the 1930s anymore.

Another major reason that the Irish are set up to fail is the fact that they are an independent school. Back when a lot of major programs didn’t play in conferences, this was relatively irrelevant. However, now that the Irish are the only major program that doesn’t compete for a conference title they find themselves at a distinct disadvantage. Simply put, no one competes for the National Title every year, yet most big programs still have a lot to play for once they are eliminated. For example, look at Ohio State or Missouri this year. Both schools suffered tough losses early but rebounded well and now Ohio State is the Big Ten co-champions and Missouri will be playing for the Big XII Title next week. Both teams’ players cited their still-surviving goal of a conference title as sufficient reason to continue fighting tooth and nail every week.

The Irish, however, find themselves playing for endless rivalry trophies to close out the year once their chances for a National Title are ended and that provides a distinct competitive disadvantage. Furthermore, the Irish play a tougher schedule in September than they do in October because a lot of their rivals are in conferences and can’t schedule games after September. I strongly believe that if the players had something more tangible to play for and a few easier games early then the Irish would be more successful down the stretch. There’s nothing wrong with great rivalry games but when your season is defined by a couple of Shillelaghs, Megaphones, and games with service academies, it is hard to get up for. I firmly believe that if Notre Dame’s players also had the goal of winning a conference title then they’d see a lot better results later in the year. Plus, if Notre Dame plays Stanford, Navy and San Diego State to start the year before running into Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State then their younger players will have a better chance to gain confidence in their abilities.

The final major reason that Notre Dame is set up for failure is the school itself. Notre Dame is one of only two Catholic schools that field a football team in Division 1-A and their academics are quite strong. I think that Notre Dame’s complaints that they don’t take ‘hooligans and criminals’ is definitely a crutch used by frustrated fans but the fact is that Notre Dame is a tough academic institute to get into. That said, Notre Dame isn’t any tougher to get into than Michigan and the Wolverines have always been able to bring in great players. Notre Dame needs to be allowed to take the occasional risk on a player whose grades aren’t those of a typical Notre Dame applicant if they want to attract some of the top end talents. I’m not advocating bringing in the Willie Williamses of the world but Notre Dame needs to let their staff bring in the occasional grade risk.

What would I do if put in charge of the Notre Dame program? Here is my simple four step process to return Notre Dame to glory on and off the field.

• Allow Charlie Weis to coach next season and if he doesn’t succeed (fairly likely) in winning more than 8 games I would dismiss him and say that he was given the traditional five years and did not show enough progress or success to continue as Notre Dame’s head football coach. This would allow Notre Dame to attempt to regain some credibility when they talk about their ‘higher standard.’
• Chase after Urban Meyer with every dollar I could possibly muster. I’m talking more than Nick Saban money here. In Meyer’s own autobiography that was released just last summer, he called Notre Dame his dream job. Furthermore, it is one of only three jobs that his wife would allow him to move his family for (along with Michigan and Ohio State). Meyer is even named after a POPE. He would appeal perfectly to Notre Dame on a huge number of levels and it wouldn’t surprise me if he could be persuaded to leave Florida at the same time that Tim Tebow graduates. Meyer would be the perfect coach to steward the Irish back to glory.
• Re-open the 1999 discussions with the Big Ten to become the conference’s 12 th member. The move was already unanimously approved by Notre Dame’s faculty a decade ago and the Irish already play three Big Ten teams every year. Give the players that extra goal of a conference title. While some Irish alumni won’t be happy to begin with, this will be a huge way to improve on-field performance and it shouldn’t cost Notre Dame a dime in revenue. It would also give the Irish greater access to non-BCS bowl tie-ins as part of the Big Ten’s hierarchy. Remember, Notre Dame’s refusal in the 1980s to join the Big Ten was an overriding reason that Lou Holtz left and the Irish haven’t been the same since. I can imagine that adding a conference structure would be a prerequisite to acquiring a coach as successful and revered as Meyer.
• Allow a few academic question marks to be admitted every year. I’m not talking about kids with criminal records here but some of the best football players are good people who struggle at times in the classroom. If you’re only going to recruit smart kids from Catholic high schools and limit your recruiting pool, you’re not competing every year for the best players in the country. I’m sure that this would be a prerequisite for a coach like Meyer as well.

Now, I’m sure that I’ll get a lot of emails saying that I just don’t understand Notre Dame football or that I’m a fool for even suggesting that Notre Dame wait another year before ending the Charlie Weis era. However, I’m fully confident that my plan would return Notre Dame to the on-field success level of other national powerhouses. The days of the independent football power are over, my friends, and Notre Dame will only continue to struggle until they make an intelligent change at the Head Coaching position and start playing for Big Ten titles.

On to the National Title chase (which hasn’t included Notre Dame for fifteen years), which received quite the shake up with the thumping that Oklahoma gave Texas Tech in Norman. Here is each of my top five’s chances to play for the Crystal Football.

• Alabama – Six years of frustration can be exorcised in one fell swoop this weekend. Assuming that the Tide knock off a bad Auburn crew, the showdown with Florida could be the most hyped regular season game since #1 Ohio State and #2 Michigan met two years ago. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: Entirely Plausible but Still Doubtful
• Florida – Beware the Fighting Bobby Bowdens. Florida has absolutely dominated teams for two months now but they still have to play two ranked teams in very emotional games to ensure a National Title shot. However, if I had to pick any of these teams right now to play for the National Title, I would pick Florida because they control their own destiny, unlike my #3 and #4 teams. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: If I Was A Betting Man, My Money Would Be Here
• Texas – This is going to get ugly. Texas has to punk rival Texas A&M and then politick like heck to stay ahead of Oklahoma in the rankings. The Sooners host E! SPiN’s College Gameday this weekend and Texas fans and boosters have apparently planned to fly a giant 45-35 banner behind a Cessna during the game and overload the Gameday set with 45-35 signs. Oh boy……Likelihood of playing for the National Title: In the Hands Of The Voters But Trailing In The Exit Polls
• Oklahoma – Only in state rival Oklahoma State stands in the way of the Sooners finishing the year 11-1. Right now, Oklahoma is the voters’ choice to play for the Big XII and presumably National Titles. A win over Okie State could be enough to improve their computer average to jump Texas despite their head to head loss. That said, expect the Sooners to do plenty of their own politicking if they beat the Cowboys. The Oklahoma-Texas game is going to be really ugly next year, isn’t it? Likelihood of playing for the National Title: In the Hands Of The Voters But Leading In The Exit Polls
• Penn State – The Nittany Lions sit at an impressive 11-1 and are coming off of a very good win over 9-3 Michigan State, but the Big Ten’ s struggles in past games along with the logjam ahead of them makes Penn State no more than a fringe observer sitting at #5. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: A Snowball’s Chance in Hades

Now that we’ve looked over the National Title scene, we move on to BAX’s BCS BOWL PREDICTIONS!

• National Title Game: Florida ( SEC Champ) versus Oklahoma (Big XII Champ)
• Rose Bowl: Oregon State (Pac Ten Champ) versus Penn State (Big Ten Champ)
• Fiesta Bowl: Texas (At Large) versus USC (At Large)
• Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC Champ) versus Cincinnati (Big East Champ)
• Sugar Bowl: Utah (Non- BCS Qualifier) versus Alabama (At Large)

Now, the major assumptions that I am making here (outside of automatic tie-ins) are:

• Oklahoma will defeat Oklahoma State and ride the momentum to the Big XII Title.
• Texas will be the Big XII’s second choice over Texas Tech.
• The Sugar and Fiesta will replace their conference champions in the National Title Games with teams from their respective conferences ( Alabama and Texas).
• Oregon State defeats Oregon to clinch the automatic BCS berth from the Pac Ten.
• The Fiesta will select USC with the first at large selection.
• The Sugar Bowl then chooses Utah, leaving Cincinnati to go to the Orange Bowl.

Underlined teams above have already officially clinched BCS berths, so as you can see there is definitely a lot of wiggle room left in both the selections and actual bowl matchups themselves. The biggest domino left to fall probably is the Oregon State-Oregon game this weekend, as both the Rose and Fiesta Bowl matchups would change if the Ducks win.

Last week was a relatively good week as I went 5-3 on my picks; I now sit at 66-41 on the year. This week is rivalry week, which means that there are a lot of games which could come down to the wire. College football is a game defined by emotion and it won’t get more emotional than this week. I can’t wait!

Texas A&M @ #3 Texas

Thursday, 8:00 PM EST

All the talk in the news surrounding Texas seems to merely mention that the Longhorns need to put on a show to hope to maintain their ranking ahead of Oklahoma. What is forgotten is that Texas hasn’t beaten the Aggies since 2005. That’s right; Colt McCoy is 0-2 against A&M. I think that alone will provide Texas more than enough motivation to go out and beat their rivals by a pretty strong margin. Mack Brown didn’t run up the score against Kansas a few weeks ago but things could definitely be different on Thanksgiving evening.

Texas 55, Texas A&M 14

West Virginia @ #20 Pittsburgh

Friday, 12:00 PM EST

Remember this game last year? West Virginia was one win away from the National Title Game and the only thing standing in their way was a 4-7 football team. Well, West Virginia went down hard at home to the Panthers and payback will definitely be on their minds. This is one of the more underrated rivalry games in college football and you know that the weather will be cold and the hitting will be heavy. West Virginia has been playing better of late but the Panthers match up well with the West Virginia offense. Look for a hard fought football game to be decided on a late field goal by Pitt to defeat WVU for the second consecutive year.

Pittsburgh 27, West Virginia 24

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#23 Georgia Tech @ #12 Georgia

Saturday, 12:00 PM EST

This is a very intriguing game after Georgia Tech ran for nearly 500 yards against Miami last Thursday. Now, Georgia is probably better defensively than the Hurricanes but Georgia has allowed 124 rushing yards against Auburn, 226 to Kentucky, 185 to Florida, and 188 to LSU in their last four games. That’s an average of 181 yards per game during the past month! Uh oh, Georgia! Furthermore, Georgia Tech’s defensive line is one of the country’s best and Georgia struggles on the offensive line due to youth and injuries. Uh oh, Georgia! Furthermore, Georgia Tech has been a very different team in Paul Johnson’s first year and the Yellow Jackets go into this game with their best team in years and believing that they can end the seven year losing skid to their archrivals. I’m picking Georgia Tech in the upset and look for the Yellow Jacket rushing attack to both control the clock and score a lot of points.

Georgia Tech 41, Georgia 33

South Carolina @ Clemson

Saturday, 12:00 PM EST

This is another really good rivalry game, though both teams have struggled this year. Clemson would feel a lot better about this lost year if they at least knocked off the Gamecocks while South Carolina is jockeying for bowl position after missing out completely a year ago thanks to a season-ending loss to the Tigers. Spurrier’s crew plays really good defense and will be smarting from the beating they received at the hands of the Florida Gators two weeks ago. Expect an angry South Carolina team to go into Death Valley and knock off the Tigers.

South Carolina 24, Clemson 16

Auburn @ #1 Alabama

Saturday 3:30 PM EST

This is one of the nation’s best rivalries and this year’s game could mean more than any other in recent memory. Auburn has won six games in a row against Alabama but they are just fighting to get into a bowl game right now. Meanwhile, Alabama could wrap up an undefeated regular season and get the first win over Auburn in Tuscaloosa for the first time in school history. That’s right; Alabama is 0-6 against Auburn when the game is in Tuscaloosa. Expect Nick Saban to knock off the Tigers and continue the Tide’s great season.

Alabama 30, Auburn 23

#2 Florida @ #24 Florida State

Saturday 3:30 PM EST

The Seminoles and Gators always provide great theater when they clash. However, the Noles have been on a bit of a skid in recent years while the Gators have risen quickly under Urban Meyer. This year could be the first in Meyer’s tenure where both teams are actually good and could provide great theater, especially with the backdrop of Florida’s National Title dreams. I expect a pretty good football game that will go back and forth but in the end the Gators are just too deep for me to believe that Florida State will have a chance to knock them off. Expect a close game but Florida moves to 11-1.

Florida 34, Florida State 24

Maryland @ #25 Boston College

Saturday 3:30 PM EST

Boston College is in position to clinch an ACC Title game berth after winning back to back big games. That said, everyone who has been in position to clinch an ACC title game berth has fallen short in the past few weeks and I don’t think that this will be any different. Boston College will face a tough Maryland team which was humiliated last week and will want to redeem themselves. I’m picking the Terps in the upset because I think that the ACC’s season-long trend of choking away opportunity is going to continue and Maryland will play very emotional football in the win.

Maryland 27, Boston College 23

#22 Oregon @ #13 Oregon State

Saturday 7:00 PM EST

The Civil War provides Oregon State the opportunity to advance to the Rose Bowl. However, the Beavers’ star tailback, Jacquizz Rodgers, is doubtful to play and will definitely be limited even if he does. Losing the Pac Ten Freshman of the Year is a huge blow to Oregon State but they still have a lot of weapons. Meanwhile, Oregon brings in a dangerous offensive attack but their defense is definitely a weak link. The Ducks allowed Arizona to score 45 points two week ago while the Beavers held them to only 17 last Saturday. Oregon State has a huge advantage on the defensive side of the football and plays very tenaciously. In the end, this game will come down to big plays and I think that Oregon State’s passing attack will make more of them with their trio of excellent receivers. Oregon State will officially smell the Roses with a hard fought victory over Oregon.

Oregon State 31, Oregon 27

Notre Dame @ #6 Southern California

Saturday 8:00 PM EST

This might be the mismatch of the day. USC is fired up and angry that they’re not being included in the National Title race while Notre Dame just lost at home to 3-8 Syracuse. Not much to really say about this one except that Charlie Weis’ team had better not turn the ball over and hope for a miracle. USC wins this game going away.

USC 51, Notre Dame 17

#4 Oklahoma @ #10 Oklahoma State

Saturday 8:00 PM EST

The day’s final matchup could be the day’s most important. Oklahoma State has a very realistic chance of defeating the Sooners (remember they beat Mizzou and almost beat Texas in Austin) and Oklahoma isn’t quite as dominant away from Norman. The one glaring hole in any of the Big XII South contenders’ resumes is a big road win over a ranked opponent and Oklahoma could vault into the Big XII Title game if they can do so. This game will come down to Oklahoma State’s running game. If the Sooners can slow them down and prevent the Cowboys from playing ball control football then they win this game handily. I expect a fairly close game but Sam Bradford and company will score enough points in a short amount of time to ensure Oklahoma’s victory.

Oklahoma 37, Oklahoma State 31

By Matt Baxendell
CollegeSports-fans.com Staff Writer

Matt Baxendell is collegesports-fans.com’s newest staff writer. If you’d like to join his college football therapy group, email him at matt.baxendell @ gmail.com with all your questions, comments, and anything else you would like to share. Also be sure to check out Matt's 2008 conference previews and college football Top 25 rankings here at CollegeSports-fans.com!

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