THE WORLD OF BAX: Is Rodriguez the Right Fit?

Plus: The National Title and BCS Bowl Picture

“You almost want to tell them, ‘Get a life’” - Michigan Head Coach Rich Rodriguez

The weekend before Thanksgiving is here and we all know what that means: Ohio State-Michigan, the greatest rivalry in college football. However, this year is a little bit different for the participants of The Game; Michigan is closing out the worst year in their entire history while Ohio State is again one of the country’s best teams. Now, what makes the Ohio State-Michigan game so special is the consistently high stakes that the two teams normally play for and this year is very different than games past. Michigan is mired in their worst season EVER and is a three touchdown underdog in Las Vegas.

So you would think that things couldn’t get worse for the Wolverine fan base going into this game when their team is 3-8 and are starting at a 0-3 mark this season against their rivals, right? Well, Rich Rodriguez, Michigan’s struggling first year coach, decided to take the bold step of telling the fans of college football’s all time wins leader that they need to stop complaining and “Get a life. There are whole lot bigger problems. Look at the economy.”

Well Rich, most of your new home state is mired in a recession and most of the remaining employed Michiganders work in the auto industry, which is barely holding on. Don’t you think that the fact that the economy stinks makes them even more desperate for good things from their Wolverines? Like it or not, you jumped up to big boy football when you took one of the best jobs in college football and you are expected to win and even worse, you are at least expected to care. This isn’t West Virginia, where everything you did was worshipped because you were the home state kid. This is Michigan and everyone in Ann Arbor expects you to hold yourself and your team to a higher standard.

All year long, Rodriguez has continued to confirm my initial reaction to his hiring: He just doesn’t get it at Michigan and he is in over his head. From his bungled start (where he dragged out a pointless lawsuit with West Virginia) to his mismanaged offseason (where he ran off star lineman Justin Boren to archrival Ohio State and future star quarterback Ryan Mallett, among others) and culminating in the most disastrous season in Michigan history, Rodriguez has repeatedly proved that he is in over his head at Michigan.

What makes things even worse for Rodriguez is that he wasn’t even Michigan’s first or second choice to take the job. If Lloyd Carr had held on another year, favorite son Les Miles would probably have ended up in Michigan this December. Rodriguez was the first coaching hire at Michigan in forty years that didn’t have any ties to the football program and that means he won’t get the benefit of the doubt from an increasingly frustrated Michigan fan base. While he tried to caution that it would be a transition, most Michigan fans assumed that ‘transition’ meant an Alamo Bowl trip, not the worst season in nearly 130 years of Michigan football.

Now Rodriguez has proven inept at that which Michigan fans hold most dear: Beating the teams that they hate the most. Michigan State hadn’t beaten the Wolverines in the Big House in twenty years and went in and upset them this year. The Wolverines also lost badly to a down Notre Dame team and now they face the prospect of another senior class graduating without beating the Buckeyes. Yet Rodriguez has the audacity to tell the legions of Wolverine fans, nearly all of which have been wearing their team’s colors far longer than their coach, that they need to go get a life.

If things go as most observers expect and Ohio State moves to 7-1 against Michigan under Jim Tressel, Rodriguez had better hope that his team develops in the offseason and can at least qualify for a bowl game. If Michigan has another year like this, expect the Wolverines to have a new coach next January. Wolverine fans, if you think I’m wrong, let me give you a comparison: Rich Rodriguez understands the culture and passions of Michigan football as well as John Cooper understood the culture and passions of Ohio State football. Cooper’s record against Michigan was 2-10-1. Do you really want to go down that path with Rodriguez with the biggest rivalry in college football on the line and Jim Tressel staring you down from the opposing sideline?

On to the National Title chase, which really hasn’t changed at all since last week. However, this week is going to have a huge shakedown when Oklahoma and Texas Tech meet in Norman. Let’s go over the top 5 teams’ chances to play for the Crystal Football.

• Texas Tech – Texas Tech’s season right now comes down to a game at Oklahoma, where Tech is 0-4 under Mike Leach. The entire game will be decided by Texas Tech’s ability to protect Graham Harrell, because Tech will need at least 40 points to outscore a dominant Oklahoma offense. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: Just as likely as playing in the Cotton Bowl
• Alabama – Alabama gets the week off and will rest up for the Iron Bowl. If the Tide can break Auburn’s six year winning streak then Nick Saban can finally start talking about Florida. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: Entirely Plausible but Still Doubtful
• Florida – Does scoring 56 points on the SEC’s top defense convince you? If not, you’re living in a dream world. While the SEC is down this year, Florida is heads and shoulders better than the rest of the league. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: Likely and Far Less Difficult Than Last Week
• Texas – Remember what I said last week, Texas fans? Boomer! Sooner! Cheer with gusto for your archrival this weekend! While it may sting, the good news for the Longhorns is that their worst case bowl scenario is probably an at large bid to the Fiesta Bowl. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: Hanging on by a thread
• Oklahoma – The Sooners have the toughest remaining run of the top five teams. Even if they beat Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, they still would have to beat Missouri to get to the National Title game. However, assuming that the voters play along, Oklahoma has the potential to run the table. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: Win or Go Home

Now that we’ve looked over the National Title scene, we move on to BAX’s BCS BOWL PREDICTIONS!

National Title Game: Florida ( SEC Champ) versus Oklahoma (Big XII Champ)

Rose Bowl: Oregon State (Pac Ten Champ) versus Penn State (Big Ten Champ)

Fiesta Bowl: Texas (At Large) versus USC (At Large)

Orange Bowl: Miami (ACC Champ) versus Utah (Non- BCS Qualifier)

Sugar Bowl: Pittsburgh (Big East Champ) versus Alabama (At Large)

Now, the major assumptions that I am making here (outside of automatic tie-ins) are:

• Oklahoma will defeat Texas Tech and Oklahoma State and ride the momentum to the Big XII Title.
• Texas will be the Big XII’s second choice over Texas Tech.
• The Sugar and Fiesta will replace their conference champions in the National Title Games with teams from their respective conferences ( Alabama and Texas).
• Oregon State defeats Arizona and Oregon to clinch the automatic BCS berth from the Pac Ten.
• The Fiesta will select USC with the first at large selection.
• The Sugar Bowl chose Pittsburgh over Utah, leaving the Utes to go to the Orange Bowl.

Oregon State’s defeat of California led me to shake these predictions up as I think they’ll now win the Pac Ten. That means that Ohio State gets bumped from the BCS picture and we get an Oregon State-Penn State rematch in the Rose Bowl. In general, outside of the USC-Texas game, my current BCS predictions took a step back in general excitement from a week ago.

Last week was a relatively good week as I went 5-2 on my picks; I now sit at 61-38 on the year. This week should provide me more opportunities to pick games, there are a lot of exciting games between now and Saturday.

#15 Ball State @ Central Michigan

Wednesday, 7:00 PM EST

This is a huge game in the MAC West race. Right now, the MAC West features 10-0 Ball State, 8-2 Central Michigan and 9-2 Western Michigan. That’s a pretty tough race. Even tougher is the fact that Ball State has to close the season playing both teams back to back. That said, we’re talking about this week and I distinctly remember picking Ball State to win the MAC title in the preseason and specifically saying that they would win this game to wrest the MAC title from the two time defending champions. I’m taking Nate Davis and company in a really good game.

Ball State 34, CMU 28

Miami @ Georgia Tech

Thursday, 7:30 PM EST

In the topsy turvy world that is ACC football, Miami is currently the leader in the ACC Coastal. With lightweight NC State as their only game after Thursday night, it would be fair to assume that the Hurricanes can essentially clinch a title game appearance with a win at Grant Field. However, Tech is a very tough team that Miami will struggle to contain. However, if Miami’s defensive front performs the way it did last Thursday night, expect the Hurricanes to leave Atlanta with the victory.

Miami 24, Georgia Tech 17

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Michigan @ #8 Ohio State

Saturday, 12:00 PM EST

Normally a game between a 9-2 team and a 3-8 doesn’t really register much nationally. However, this is still The Game in the Midwest and Michigan could be gunning for the biggest upset in series history. That said, my opinion on Rich Rodriguez has been clearly stated at this point already and I just can’t picture Nick Sheridan leading Michigan to its first win over Ohio State in 5 years. Ohio State NEVER takes Michigan lightly and that would be the only way that this game could even remain somewhat close. I’m going to go conservative in predicting the score but Ohio State moves to 7-1 under Jim Tressel against Michigan on Saturday.

Ohio State 34, Michigan 13

#12 Michigan State @ #6 Penn State

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

For perhaps the first time since the inception of the Land Grant Trophy, the Penn State- Michigan State rivalry will be each team’s most important game of the season. Michigan State is 9-2 and a win would earn them a share of the Big Ten title while a Penn State win would send the Nittany Lions to the Rose Bowl for the first time in nearly 15 years. This is one of the best games of the week and both teams’ powerful running attacks could dominate a game which could be played in cold and snowy conditions. I think that JoePa’s team pulls out the win and will be smelling the Roses in January.

Penn State 31, Michigan State 21

#17 Boise State @ Nevada

Saturday 4:05 PM EST

This game is the biggest obstacle in the way of Boise State’s unbeaten season. The Broncos aren’t nearly as tough away from home as they are on the Smurf Turf and Nevada is a pretty good team. I think that Boise State is in trouble here and I’m going to pick Nevada to surprise the Broncos and ruin their unbeaten year because I expect Colin Kaepernick to have a huge day running and passing the football for the Wolf Pack.

Nevada 38, Boise State 34

#25 BYU @ #9 Utah

Saturday 6:00 PM EST

The Holy War is here. The Cougars are hoping to win their own share of the Mountain West conference by upsetting the Utes while Utah is fighting for their second BCS bowl berth in school history. Of the two teams, Utah is the more balanced of the pair but BYU’s explosive offense could have a big day. Simply put, if Utah plays on offense like they did against TCU a few weeks ago and only scores 13 points, BYU will win the game. However, I think that Utah will do just enough to slow down the Cougars and clinch the Mountain West Title on a late field goal by Louie Sakoda, America’s most popular field goal kicker.

Utah 34, BYU 31

#18 Pittsburgh @ #19 Cincinnati

Saturday 7:15 PM EST

This is the Big East title game for the Bearcats. If they win, only Syracuse stands in their way of their first Big East title. However, Pittsburgh’s strengths match up well against Cincinnati and their running attack led by Shady McCoy could find success against a Bearcats defense that is excellent against the pass but can be susceptible to the run. I have to pick the Panthers in this game because I like their physicality on defense and I think that Shady McCoy will control the ball and keep the Bearcat offense off the field. Pittsburgh wins this game to keep their own conference title hopes alive. Expect a close game at Nippert Stadium.

Pittsburgh 27, Cincinnati 23

#1 Texas Tech @ #5 Oklahoma

Saturday 8:00 PM EST

This is the game of the season for both teams. If Texas Tech wins, then the Red Raiders could be playing for a national title in two months. If Oklahoma wins, they have to hope for the goodwill of voters to get their own shot at the big one. The big key in this football game is whether Oklahoma can get to Graham Harrell. If he is given time to throw, he will pick any defense apart. However, I like Oklahoma’s defensive line and I think that the Sooners will get a lot of pressure on Harrell and slow Tech down enough to win a shootout in Norman.

By Matt Baxendell
CollegeSports-fans.com Staff Writer

Matt Baxendell is collegesports-fans.com’s newest staff writer. If you’d like to join his college football therapy group, email him at matt.baxendell @ gmail.com with all your questions, comments, and anything else you would like to share. Also be sure to check out Matt's 2008 conference previews and college football Top 25 rankings here at CollegeSports-fans.com!

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