THE WORLD OF BAX: The National Title and BCS Bowl Picture

Away, ye Big Ten rascals; Alas Penn State is lost and shall not win the crystal trophy.

All right, enough channeling bad Shakespeare. Clearly the events of this past weekend were defined in Iowa City. With Penn State’s loss, the season seems to be moving quickly towards a Big XII- SEC showdown for the National Title. Let’s go over the top 5 teams’ chances to play for the Crystal Football.

• Texas Tech – The Red Raiders have to beat Oklahoma. From there, they’re just looking at Baylor before a Big XII Title Game against Missouri. The Red Raiders will be underdogs to the Sooners next week and a loss will all but eliminate the Red Raiders from the race. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: Solid but Precarious
• Alabama – The Crimson Tide are 10-0 and are staring at Mississippi State and Auburn to close the year. Now, the Tide hasn’t scored a touchdown against MSU since 2004 but I really doubt that trend will continue. Auburn is dangerous merely because of the rivalry factor but they’re playing poorly this year and don’t pose a huge threat. However, Alabama is the least impressive team in this top five to me and I just cannot picture them beating Florida at this point. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: Entirely Plausible but Doubtful
• Florida – The Gators have been dominant on offense all season and are continuing to improve on defense. Simply put, this is the most dominant team in the SEC. However, the Gators have a very tough closing stretch, starting with South Carolina this weekend. Only Oklahoma has a tougher close of the top five teams, with the Gators playing three ranked teams. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: Likely but Difficult
• Texas – The Longhorns have to root for the Sooners next weekend against Texas Tech if they want to have a chance to play for the National Title. Then if the Sooners win, they have to root for them again to knock off Oklahoma State the week after. That has to hurt every Texas fan out there. Then the Longhorns have to hope that voters don’t have a short memory when comparing them with Oklahoma. After all, their big win over Oklahoma came nearly 2 months ago. That’s like eons to some pollsters. This could be difficult. Likelihood of playing for the National Title: Hanging on by a thread
• Oklahoma – The Sooners sort of control their destiny. Simply put, voters have a short memory and if the Sooners knock of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in back to back weeks, the BCS standings will probably push the Sooners in the Big XII Title Game as a tiebreaker in the Big XII South. Oklahoma certainly can score with anyone, the question is can they stop either of their last two opponents? Likelihood of playing for the National Title: Strong and Getting Stronger Every Week that Bob Stoops Complains About the BCS

Now, there are two other teams which could have an argument to play for the Big Prize: Penn State and USC. However, for either team to have a chance, they have to win out and then hope that the Big XII South Champion loses in the Big XII Title Game or Florida loses before the SEC Title Game but wins the conference, none of which are fairly unlikely. Those would also be the only major meltdown scenarios for the BCS. Right now, the BCS should have a nice, neat and clean National Title Game if the Big XII Champ comes from the South. The other Big XII South teams won’t have a conference title so they’re out and Penn State and USC have a perceived lighter strength of schedule, which eliminates them. Penn State’s finale against Michigan State won’t garner the attention that either the SEC or Big XII Title Game will and USC’s closing stretch of Stanford, Notre Dame and UCLA certainly won’t do the Trojans any favors.

That brings me to my first installation of BAX ’s BCS BOWL PREDICTIONS!

National Title Game: Florida ( SEC Champ) versus Oklahoma (Big XII Champ)

Rose Bowl: USC (Pac Ten Champ) versus Penn State (Big Ten Champ)

Fiesta Bowl: Texas (At Large) versus Utah (Non- BCS Qualifier

Orange Bowl: North Carolina (ACC Champ) versus Pittsburgh (Big East Champ)

Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (At Large) versus Alabama (At Large)

Now, the major assumptions that I am making here (outside of automatic tie-ins) are:

• Oklahoma will defeat Texas Tech and Oklahoma State and ride the momentum to the Big XII Title.
• Texas will be the Big XII’s second choice over Texas Tech.
• The Sugar and Fiesta will replace their conference champions in the National Title Games with teams from their respective conferences ( Alabama and Texas).
• The Fiesta will select Utah first due to their proximity over an Ohio State team that travels very well but has been to Arizona four times since 2002.
• The Sugar Bowl will snap up Ohio State with the next selection to set up a Big Ten- SEC matchup in New Orleans, leaving the Big East for the Orange Bowl.

Outside of the Orange Bowl, that would be one of the better slates of BCS Bowl games in recent years. The USC-Penn State game would be a great Rose Bowl, Florida–Oklahoma would be a fantastic National Title Game, Ohio State-Alabama would be a huge game and Texas-Utah would be really interesting. Even UNC-Pitt would probably be a good game, even though it lacks the star power of the other games. Keep your fingers crossed…….

Virginia Tech @ Miami

Thursday, 7:30 PM EST

Virginia Tech will have to hope that their second Thursday Night game in two weeks is as successful as the first. The Hokies knocked off Maryland last week and still have a chance to play for the ACC Title. However, Miami is a young and improving team and also is still in the ACC race. Now, I could say the same for 10 of the 12 teams in the ACC, so that really doesn’t say a lot. However, this game will belong to the Hokies rushing attack and I expect Virginia Tech to pull out a close game on a late field goal and take control of their ACC Championship hopes.

Virginia Tech 27, Miami 24

#8 Ohio State @ Illinois

Saturday, 12:00 PM EST

The Buckeyes will have revenge on their minds after the Illini ruined Ohio State’s perfect season last year on senior day in Columbus. The Illini have been very good at times and very bad at times this season, represented by their 5-5 record and a shocking loss to Western Michigan last week. Ohio State is getting better as the season progresses and Terrelle Pryor is quickly becoming a major star. I expect Juice Williams to cause some trouble for the Buckeyes but Ohio State is going to come out firing and push Illinois to the brink of a losing season.

Ohio State 31, Illinois 17

#4 Texas @ Kansas

Saturday, 12:30 PM EST

This would be another ranked opponent for Texas had the Jayhawks not given up 45 points to Nebraska last week en route to a surprising loss. However, Kansas has lost to South Florida, Oklahoma and Texas Tech this year, so they’ve had a very difficult schedule. Texas, meanwhile, will be looking to score some style points in their continuing quest to jump back into the National Title race. Expect Texas to come out firing and win a shootout. However, Kansas won’t go quietly.

Texas 45, Kansas 24

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#15 Georgia @ Auburn

Saturday, 12:30 PM EST

Georgia beat Auburn 45-20 last year and the major subject of discussion at Auburn this past week was the Bulldogs’ tandem dancing to Soulja Boy’s ‘Crank Dat’ late in the game before a late kickoff. Simply put, the Tigers are going to have to find a lot more motivation than a team dance if they want to make up for their lost season by beating the Bulldogs. I just can’t see Georgia losing this game, despite the fact that I don’t think very highly of their defense. However, I expect Georgia’s defense to get healthy this week against a very weak Auburn offense. I wonder if Tommy Tuberville will survive at Auburn if the Tigers finish 5-7?

Georgia 34, Auburn 14

#23 South Carolina @ #3 Florida

Saturday 3:30 PM EST

This is the highlight game of the day, which is pretty weak compared to recent weeks highlighted by games such as Penn State at Ohio State, Texas at Texas Tech and Alabama at LSU. Still, this game should be quite interesting as the Old Ball Coach has given his alma mater a lot of headaches during his time at South Carolina. The Gamecocks beat the Gators in 2005 and had a last second field blocked in 2006, meaning that they likely won’t be overwhelmed by the scene in this game. However, South Carolina’s offense won’t put up enough points to a hang with Florida and South Carolina’s strong defense just won’t be able to keep Tim Tebow and company out of the end zone enough to come out of the Swamp with a victory. This game is a good, close game I think but Florida pulls away in the end.

Florida 37, South Carolina 24

#24 California @ #20 Oregon State

Saturday 3:30 PM EST

This game is absolutely huge in the Pac Ten race, as Oregon State controls its BCS and Pac Ten hopes. A win here for the Beavers puts them a mere two wins away from wresting the Pac Ten title from USC for the first time in 7 years! USC fans will have to ask Cal for help a week after knocking off the Bears if USC wants to regain control of the race. California has a very strong defensive team and could give the Beavers some significant troubles if they can get consistent quarterback play. In the end, the main matchup will be eventual Pac Ten Freshman of the Year Jacquizz Rodgers against a stout Cal run defense. I have to go with Oregon State at home in this matchup in a close game to move Oregon State two games away from a Rose Bowl berth.

Oregon State 31, California 27

Boston College @ #14 Florida State

Saturday 7:45 PM EST

This is a big game for both teams, as Boston College can win their division in the ACC if they win out. The Eagles have notched some big wins in recent weeks, including a workmanlike 17-0 victory over Notre Dame last week. Meanwhile, Florida State is starting to come together and is probably the best team in terms of talent in the ACC. However, if FSU and Wake Forest both win out, then Wake gets the nod in the division. Thus, all the Seminoles can do right now is to keep pace in the race and I expect their defense to be the story of this game and shut down Boston College for a resounding home win.

Florida State 24, Boston College 10

By Matt Baxendell
CollegeSports-fans.com Staff Writer

Matt Baxendell is collegesports-fans.com’s newest staff writer. If you’d like to join his college football therapy group, email him at matt.baxendell @ gmail.com with all your questions, comments, and anything else you would like to share. Also be sure to check out Matt's 2008 conference previews and college football Top 25 rankings here at CollegeSports-fans.com!

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