Quantcast Week 10 College Football Preview 2009: The Lists

THE WORLD OF BAX: THE LIST EDITION

Entering November, I think I’ve seen enough football from all over the country to start putting together my thoughts on a number of awards, fictional rankings and conference conjecture. Thus, in lieu of a column of analysis, I give you my list edition: A column where I ranked everything from conference strength to worst officiating in an easy to read list format! Here are my thoughts on:

THE HEISMAN TROPHY: The most prestigious individual award in college football.

Unlike many Heisman voters, I’m not going to blindly pick the starting quarterback on the top ranked team. That means you won’t see Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow on this list because both have been good, not great, this season and I want to reward the best player in college football instead of the best known player. This list should reflect the players who have been most valuable to their team throughout the season.

  1. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama: Ingram has carried my #1 team’s offense and his role continues to grow as the Tide plan on relying heavily on the Wildcat during the season’s closing stretch. He has been the best running back in America and is at the top of many people’s ballots.
  2. Case Keenum, QB, Houston: Through 8 games, Keenum has thrown for 3,200 yards and 25 touchdowns against only five interceptions. His team is 7-1, including three wins against BCS conference competition. In short, he’s the most valuable quarterback in the country.
  3. Jimmy Claussen, QB, Notre Dame: While Keenum is the most valuable quarterback, Claussen might be the one with the most pro potential. Almost every single Notre Dame game has been a close affair and Claussen has distinguished himself with his toughness and production. I will be shocked if he doesn’t end up in New York in December.
  4. Dion Lews, RB, Pittsburgh: This true freshman has been the load-bearing tailback that the Panthers desperately needed when Shady McCoy left early for the NFL. Lewis has allowed the offense to open up and he is among the leaders in the nation in rushing.

 

THE ‘MY CONFERNECE IS BIGGER THAN YOURS’ AWARD: This awards the conferences which have distinguished themselves with excellent competition throughout the standings and are highlighted by nationally elite teams.

I don’t rate conference strength on the strength of top teams alone, I also look at the quality of their depth and the closeness of competition. If your favorite conference wants to earn the #1 spot, it has to possess multiple nationally ranked teams and a host of depth. Good non-conference records help as well.

  1. Southeastern Conference: The SEC debuts atop my rankings for a few reasons. First of all, no one in the country can match up atop the league with the strength of Florida, Alabama and LSU. Second of all, the SEC has the best record of the ‘Big Six’ against BCS conference foes. Finally, the conference’s depth may not match that of years past but there is still a lot of talent on hand. This has been the best conference thus far, but the margin isn’t very large over 2 nd place.
  2. Pacific Ten Conference: Speaking of second place, the Pac Ten has had a great season. Oregon has emerged as a major national powerhouse and is the favorite to win the league. Meanwhile, traditional star USC is still one of the best teams in America and gives the Pac Ten a solid 1-2 punch atop the conference. However, they’re not the only highlights as the depth of the conference is excellent, showcased by this week’s top 25, which featured a NCAA-best FIVE ranked teams! This is the deepest league in the country.
  3. Big Ten Conference: The Big Ten might be the only league which can stack up to the SEC at the top, with unbeaten Iowa, top ten Penn State and always excellent Ohio State. Along with resurgent Wisconsin, the Big Ten could have four teams finish the regular season with ten wins! However, the depth behind these four is somewhat suspect, as Michigan State, Minnesota, Michigan and Northwestern could round out the league’s postseason lineup with a gaggle of 6-6 records.
  4. Big XII Conference: The Big XII is nowhere near the league it was last season. While Texas is still excellent, Oklahoma has run into some significant injury issues and has already lost three games. Texas Tech has also taken a step back from last year and Oklahoma State still can’t seem to get over the hump. I haven’t even mentioned how terrible the North is, meaning that this is essentially a one team league at this point. If Texas weren’t so good, the Big XII might actually be lower.
  5. Big East Conference: The Big East gets a lot of flack because it is the smallest of the BCS leagues. However, this year’s edition features two very strong teams on top (unbeaten Cincinnati and one loss Pittsburgh), two strong competitors (West Virginia and South Florida) and some solid bowl teams behind them (Rutgers and Connecticut). In short, the league has a lot of depth and the only real arguments that can be made against the Big East are a lack of tradition and size.
  6. Atlantic Coast Conference: First, the positives: Georgia Tech is a very good football team that will likely win the league. Behind them, young Miami has surprised this season and is a team on the rise. The Coastal division is further populated by solid but slightly disappointing North Carolina and Virginia Tech teams, both of which will be tough postseason opponents. However, the bad almost outweighs the good: The Atlantic division is a mess, highlighted by Florida State’s implosion. The typically underachieving Clemson Tigers are currently tied with the typically overachieving Eagles of Boston College atop the standings, but we all know how likely that is to change. Plus the bottom of the league is as bad as any in the country. The ACC had 10 bowl teams last year but they’ll be lucky to get eight in 2009.
  7. Mountain West Conference: The Mountain West continues its standing as the premiere non-BCS league. Beginning with unbeaten TCU, there is excellence atop the league: BYU can brag about a win over Oklahoma and Utah has only lost one game thus far. Furthermore, Air Force, Wyoming and Colorado State have all surprised this year. While this is still a three team league, there is solid talent on hand.
  8. Conference USA: There are going to be a lot of bowl-eligible teams this year from C-USA. Houston is the standard-bearer, boasting a strong 7-1 record. However, Southern Mississippi, East Carolina, Central Florida, Tulsa, Marshall and surprising Southern Methodist provide a solid middle tier. The league is definitely stronger than in 2008.
  9. Mid-American Conference: 2009 has been one of the best seasons in recent memory for the MAC. Central Michigan is typically excellent and boasts a 6-2 record and a win at Michigan State. Meanwhile, Temple, Ohio, Kent State, Northern Illinois and others have impressed. This is the first season of bowl eligibility for Temple in decades! The MAC is certainly having a good year.
  10. Western Athletic Conference: This might seem low for a league that boasts unbeaten Boise State. However, there are only two other bright spots in this league: 7-2 Idaho’s shocking run at a bowl berth and surging Nevada’s rebound from a 0-3 start to the year. Fresno State has also played well in their 5-3 start but outside of those four teams, the rest of the league leaves a lot to be desired.
  11. Sun Belt Conference: The Sun Belt checks in last, in part due to its size and in part due to the general weakness of its teams. Troy is a solid contender for the title, but they’re nowhere near the national elite. Meanwhile, the league boasts some of the worst teams in the country in North Texas and Western Kentucky. Thus, the Sun Belt remains at the bottom of the list.


THE THORPE AWARD: The best defensive back in college football.

Here’s what the ballot for most voters is going to look like: Eric Berry and Taylor Mays and then everybody else. While both are undoubtedly exceptional players, neither has been particularly productive this year in forcing turnovers. Combined, the two have exactly three forced turnovers. That doesn’t sound like the type of production you expect from the best defensive back in college football. This list shows the nation’s most deserving defensive backs, not the ones that have the most name recognition.

  1. Tyler Sash, Iowa: Sash has been extremely productive this season. The sophomore safety has made 64 tackles and picked off six passes this year for the 9-0 Hawkeyes, including an interception return for a touchdown against Indiana last week. In less than two full seasons this young man has 11 interceptions and is currently my choice to win the Thorpe Award.
  2. Earl Thomas, Texas: As good as Sash has been, Thomas is neck and neck with him. Another sophomore, Thomas has picked off six passes and returned two for touchdowns. Even more impressive, he’s only played in six games! If his production continues for the rest of the season, he could easily surpass Sash as my top candidate for the Thorpe Award.
  3. Kurt Coleman, Ohio State: Coleman has to be the most productive player in the country that no one wants to give any credit to: In only seven games this year, Ohio State’s senior captain has registered 53 tackles, a sack, three forced fumbles and three interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown! He’s truly a playmaker in every sense of the word and should be on everyone’s short list for the Thorpe Award. Incredibly, he didn’t even make the semi-final list, showing the extreme lack of knowledge in the voting base.
  4. Rahim Moore, UCLA: Despite struggling with injuries, Moore is tied for the national lead in interceptions, with seven! UCLA’s defense is a completely different unit without his dangerous presence and he might be the biggest playmaker on this list. Even more than Thomas, Moore could use a healthy stretch run to jump to the top of the queue.

 

THE THREE BLIND MICE AWARD: The least prestigious officiating award available in college football. Conferences control official assignments, so that’s how this ‘award’ will be handed out.

At this point, it is safe to say that there have been way too many controversial decisions made by officials in major games this year. Many fans have complained heavily about apparent favorable calls towards their conference’s chosen undefeated teams, accusing the league office of favoritism to ensure strong BCS placement. Here’s a real easy way to get this award retired: Have the NCAA run official assignments instead of the conferences and remove regional and league biases towards teams. That way, no one can accuse league commissioners of trying to engineer huge matchups for their leagues…….

  1. SEC officials: Particularly involving any game that includes the Florida Gators. Honorable mention goes to whichever team is playing against Lane Kiffin. There has been so much written about poor officiating decisions and admitted missed calls in the SEC that I’m not going to go into great detail. Just know at this point that SEC coaches are on virtual double-secret probation in regards to complaining about officiating and fans everywhere are steaming about purported favorable officiating costing their teams games. If Alabama and Florida sneak through a few more opponents to get to the SEC title game unbeaten, the conspiracy theorists will be out in full force.
  2. Big Ten Replay Crews:Seriously, how hard is it to look at video tapes and make a decision? Indiana had two close touchdown reviews go against them while playing Iowa last week, which resulted in the Big Ten joining the SEC in the ‘They’re trying to get ___ to go undefeated!’ conspiracy pantheon. Regardless, Big Ten replay officials have been terrible for a few years now, going back to an unconscionable non-replay that eventually cost then-#1 Ohio State against Illinois in 2007. How do you fix it? By hiring someone who ISN’T blind to look at the damn replays, that’s how.
  3. Big Ten officials:The Big Ten refs have been so bad for so long that I felt that they deserved a particular gashing in this list. At times, these crews display a shocking lack of knowledge when it comes to basic rules of the game! How far has Big Ten officiating sunk? When Big East and MAC teams play weeknight games, their fans immediate hope that the assigned crew isn’t a Big Ten one. There’s no conspiracy here: Big Ten refs just stink, largely because their average age is approximately sixty four and their average glasses thickness is three inches.
  4. Pac Ten Replay Crews:The only league where a team can recover an onside kick yet the replay official reward the ball to the opposing squad. Yeah, that was a few years ago but this is still here because Oklahoma fans are still mad that they cost the Sooners a game at Autzen Stadium a few years ago.



THE ‘WHY HASN’T THIS HAPPENED YET?’ AWARD: This award goes to the blatantly obvious decisions that have somehow been overlooked throughout college football up to this point.

I can tell you right away that this won’t include a playoff. Despite the loud protestations of many, I think that if you go beyond a plus one format, you could easily ruin the joy that is the best regular season in college football. Furthermore, the BCS powers-that-be enjoy the controversy because it brings more exposure and money into the system.

  1. Boise State Joining the Mountain West: If Boise State wants to get recognized as an elite team nationally, they need to do two things. First, schedule more than one solid out of conference team. Look at Utah last year: They played THREE major opponents plus a pair of strong league foes. That brings me to my second point: There is nobody else in the WAC which can legitimately be considered worthy of consideration in the top 25. If Boise State joined the Mountain West, they’d immediately beef their schedule up by playing Utah, BYU and TCU yearly on top of their out of conference games. This was part of my ‘Rocky Mountain Conference’ plan; perhaps I need to bring that back in one of the coming weeks.
  2. Illinois Firing Ron Zook: I know I’ve written about this one multiple times, but I can’t let it go. Illinois has everything in place to become a winning football school: They have a big stadium, a large alumni base, a fertile home state for recruiting and very talented team. What they’re missing is a coach who can actually mold a winning squad. If Illinois had any brains, they’d announce as soon as they are eliminated from postseason play (that won’t be long with a 2-6 record) that Zook would finish out the year before being let go and immediately set their sights on Brian Kelly. The talent that the always-excellent recruiter Zook brought in would be enough for Kelly to win 8 or 9 games in his debut year! This should be a no-brainer (and would be if Illinois and a few other Big Ten schools showed the commitment that the entire SEC does towards their football programs), but Illinois’ idiotic internal politics and an athletic director with a history of a slow trigger finger are preventing the school from making any real progress on the field.
  3. Notre Dame Joining the Big Ten: Notre Dame is still independent because they claim that their mission statement is to earn as much money as possible so that they can continue to fund the school’s scholarship program while maintaining a high level of competition on the field. Well, their deal with NBC simply isn’t the most financially profitable situation. Here’s a fact: If the Irish joined the Big Ten today, they’d only have the 7 th most profitable athletic department in the league, behind moneymaking machines like Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan State! That’s because the Big Ten’s television deals with ESPN, ABC and the Big Ten Network provide nearly as much exposure and significantly more money. Notre Dame is still independent for only one reason: Their massive ego. The Irish simply think they’re too good to join a league. Hopefully, the next round of BCS negotiations eliminates their exception and forces their hand because Notre Dame makes perfect sense for the Big Ten in terms of academics, geography and athletics and both parties could really benefit each other.
  4. The Cotton Bowl Joining the BCS Rotation: This seems inevitable to me, but I’m going to complain anyway. I can’t stand this dual-hosting concept, where one BCS bowl hosts their regular game and then turns around and hosts the National Title Game the next week. With the Billion Dollar Palace, the Cotton Bowl is the perfect venue to join the BCS rotation and allow the bowl games themselves to become the Championship venues.
  5. The Pac Ten Getting a Real TV Deal: Has anyone seen how good the Pac Ten is this season? Seriously, I’m asking because there are precious few Pac Ten games on television. Outside of the occasional ABC or ESPN national broadcast games, the Pac Ten is relegated largely to the confines of Versus and the Fox Sports Network. That’s terrible for the league’s exposure nationally (I’d argue that the Big East, MAC and WAC have more of a visible television presence!) and until the Pac Ten shows up on televisions across the entire country instead of only in the western time zone, the league is going to be somewhat discounted in the eyes of the average fans and voters. That’s a shame too, because they play really good football on the West Coast.

 

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THIS WEEK’S PICKS

I finally came back to earth last week as I finished with a 5-5 record, my first average showing since September. Still, this brings my season record to 58-36 overall, so I can’t complain. Hopefully I can keep my winning percentage up this month.

 

#22 Virginia Tech at East Carolina

Thursday, 7:30 PM EST

This is going to be a strange game, to say the least. With Virginia Tech’s offensive struggles in recent weeks, I initially thought that this could be a trap game and that would favor East Carolina. However, in lieu of Tech’s two game losing streak, there is zero chance that the Hokies will be overlooking this one. Furthermore, Tech remembers last season’s embarrassing opening loss. Factor all of that together and it leads me to believe that the Hokies break their losing streak under the lights against the Pirates.

Virginia Tech 27, East Carolina 17

 

Northwestern at #2 Iowa

Saturday, Noon EST

While this SHOULD be a mismatch, no one is going to expect a blowout after watching Iowa squeak out wins all season. However, I do expect a much stronger performance from the Hawkeyes after last week’s near-disaster and I don’t think Northwestern has the firepower, especially with QB Mike Kafka hurt, to score a lot of points. That leads me to believe that this will be the easiest Hawkeye victory in a long time, assuming Ricky Stanzi doesn’t throw five more interceptions, of course.

Iowa 23, Northwestern 10

 

Navy at #16 Notre Dame

Saturday, 2:30 PM EST

This is a very dangerous game for the Irish: Rival Navy has played them extremely tough in the past few seasons (including winning at Notre Dame Stadium in 2007) and comes into this game with a solid 6-3 record. The Irish will certainly be able to score with their powerful offense but Navy’s option attack could allow them to control the game clock and keep Jimmy Claussen and company on the sideline. Expect another tight game for the Irish but I think they pull out a close victory.

Notre Dame 24, Navy 20

 

#7 Louisiana State at #1 Alabama

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

In terms of the National Championship chase, this game is the most important of the weekend. A little-discussed truth is that LSU still controls their destiny in the SEC chase: A win here puts them in the driver’s seat in the West race. The key to this game will be the play of the starting quarterbacks. Tide starter Greg McElroy was extremely shaky in the weeks leading up to the Tide’s off week, while LSU’s Jared Jefferson has continued to improve in his 2 nd season as the starter. I expect the defenses to dominate in this game but the LSU attack should be more dangerous thanks to their further advanced passing attack. Assuming the conspiracy theorists aren’t onto something when I comes to officiating, that leads me to believe that we’ll see a major upset this weekend in Tuscaloosa.

LSU 20, Alabama 14

 

#6 Oregon at Stanford

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

Now that Oregon has been anointed as the Pac Ten champions-in-waiting, it will be interesting to see how the Ducks respond. This week’s trip to The Farm will be a very tough test, as the Cardinal has put together a strong season and features a solid offensive attack. That said, I can’t see their defense having an answer for Oregon’s excellent option attack, even if it isn’t operating at the extremely high level that the nation witnessed in last week’s rout of Southern Cal. Expect Oregon to start sluggishly but pull away as the game wears on.

Oregon 37, Stanford 27

 

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#15 Ohio State at #9 Penn State

Saturday, 3:30 PM EST

Ready for another low-scoring slugfest? Last season’s showdown between the Big Ten’s top teams resulted in a gripping 13-6 Nittany Lion victory that propelled them to a Rose Bowl berth. Things shouldn’t be much different this year, as both defenses are vastly superior to their offensive counterparts. However, the key matchup in this game will be Ohio State’s offensive line against the Nittany Lions’ vicious front seven. If the line can hold their own long enough to give Terrelle Pryor the chance to make a play, the Buckeyes should emerge victorious because I don’t see Penn State’s offense scoring very many points.

Ohio State 17, Penn State 13

 

#23 Oregon State at #25 California

Saturday, 7:00 PM EST

The fact that the Pac Tan has so many interesting games every week is why it has been my favorite conference to watch in 2009. This game matches two resurgent teams: Cal is rebounding well from two midseason blowout losses while Oregon State appears in the midst of its usual 2 nd half streak. This should honestly be one heck of a football game and I could definitely see it going either way. However, I think that the difference will be Oregon State’s stellar offensive production and I’m going to pick the Beavers to continue their second half success with a tight victory at Strawberry Canyon.

Oregon State 34, California 28

 

Florida State at Clemson

Saturday, 7:45 PM EST

While neither of these teams is currently ranked in the top 25, this game will have an enormous impact on the ACC Atlantic race. A Florida State win puts Boston College in the driver’s seat but also sets up the possibility of another tiebreaking extravaganza, a la 2008. Another major factor is that Florida State’s bowl dreams would take a major hit if they don’t emerge from Death Valley with the victory. In the end, this game is going to come down to two players: C.J. Spiller and Christian Ponder, both of whom are having fantastic seasons. That said, I like Ponder to have a bigger impact and that leads me to pick the Seminoles to win another shootout.

Florida State 38, Clemson 31

 

Connecticut at #5 Cincinnati

Saturday, 8:00 PM EST

Can you believe that nearly 80% of the country is going to get this game as ABC’s Saturday Night Special? There is no question that will be the biggest regular season showcase in Cincinnati’s history, but the cynic in me tends to believe that ABC looked at last season’s schedule, saw that the Huskies won 40-16 and decided that hoping lightning would strike twice was their best chance to get people to tune in. As for the game itself, UConn has had some bad luck in recent weeks, falling just short in conference tests. Thus, I expect Cincinnati to get a strong effort from the Huskies. While an upset wouldn’t shock me, I think that the Bearcats pull out the win at home to head into a very tough final stretch.

Cincinnati 24, UConn 14

 

#21 Oklahoma at Nebraska

Saturday, 8:00 PM EST

This used to be the Big 8’s defining rivalry showcase. However, the creation of the Big XII and its divisional structure reduced the impact of one of the greatest historical rivalries in college football and after this game we’ll have to wait until 2012 for these two teams to meet again. That’s probably a good thing for the Huskers, whose offense might need that much time to actually put together a dangerous unit. While Nebraska is much improved on defense, I just can’t see them coming within a touchdown of the extremely talented Sooners. Despite playing on the road, I expect the Sooners to cruise in this one.

Oklahoma 27, Nebraska 13

 

 

By: Matt Baxendell
Matt Baxendell is collegesports-fans.com’s football writer. Keep an eye out all fall for his multiple weekly articles discussing everything college football. If you want to get in touch with him, email him at
Matt.Baxendell@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @MattBaxendell

 


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