2009 NCAA College Football Top 25: Top 25 After Week #10
Things really do work themselves out, don’t they? This weekend left us with only two ambiguous BCS conference races as the Big Ten, Big XII, SEC and ACC are all down to one game to decide things. The Big Ten race is simple: If Ohio State beats Iowa this weekend, they clinch a spot in the Rose Bowl. The Big XII clearly belongs to Texas, something that was decided two weeks ago in Stillwater. The ACC is now Georgia Tech’s to lose as a victory at Duke this weekend clinches a Yellow Jacket berth in the conference title game. Finally, the SEC is going to come down to Alabama and Florida for the second consecutive season.
SIX THINGS WE LEARNED THIS WEEK
After a 38-36 loss at the Big House to Purdue, Michigan’s record dropped to 5-5 and their bowl hopes now look particularly grim. While they only need to win one more game to become bowl eligible, they face the daunting task of traveling to Wisconsin next week before taking on streaking Ohio State to close out the year. In all likelihood, they’re looking at a 5-7 finish and another postseason at home.
Even worse, that’s not ‘progress’ for the Wolverines. Despite improving their win total, they could actually regress in Big Ten play! If the chalk holds true, the Wolverines will finish this season last in the conference with a 1-7 record.
There is no question that the blame for all of this failure should be laid at the feet of Rich Rodriguez and Athletic Director Bill Martin for hiring him. Michigan had gone four decades without a losing season and their teams finished with a combined record of 20-6 in Lloyd Carr’s final two seasons in charge. Michigan might have needed a small tweak to overcome challenges in the Big Ten from Ohio State and Penn State, but there was no question it was an elite national program.
Enter Rodriguez. Martin’s fourth choice directly contradicted everything that had made Michigan great since they hired Bo Schembechler in 1969. Rodriguez’s arrival meant the departure of a number of expected starters on the offensive line (including future NFL prospect Justin Boren, who now plays for the rival Buckeyes), a sure-fire NFL quarterback in Ryan Mallett and a ton of attrition across the board. In Rodriguez’s first two years in charge, over twenty players have left the program! So Michigan fans, before you continue your ‘blame Lloyd’ strategy, take a good hard look at the facts and realize that your team, which was among the national elite for 40 years, is now a below-average program. And the only people to blame are Martin and Rodriguez.
And it also has a cruel sense of humor. Talk about a reversal of fortune: Iowa was the luckiest team in college football en route to a shocking 9-0 start. The Hawkeyes then appeared well on their way to flouting the jinx by starting off their game against Northwestern like a house of fire. Ricky Stanzi led his team to a dominating early 10-0 lead and Iowa finally looked like they were in for a somewhat easy victory.
However, their season changed on one play. Stanzi rolled to his right after play-action and was hit by Northwestern’s Corey Wootton. The ball was fumbled and the Wildcats recovered for a touchdown to jump right back into the game. But that wasn’t the biggest negative as Stanzi was injured and isn’t expected to return until the bowl game. Despite a very strong defensive performance, Iowa couldn’t overcome the loss of their starting quarterback and fell for the first time all year.
Now, you can’t only blame the cover jinx: Iowa was down to their 4 th string tailback and the injury to Stanzi coupled with the offseason transfer of Jake Christensen left the Hawkeyes with a redshirt freshman with no appreciable playing time in charge of the offense. However, there might have been only one player that they couldn’t afford to lose and that was Ricky Stanzi. Iowa could be in a world of hurt this weekend when they have to travel to Columbus.
How many more nationally-televised showcases does the Alabama sophomore need for the media to acknowledge that it is his award to lose? Ingram ran for 144 yards, most of which came during the second half when the game was very much in doubt, to increase his season total to nearly 1,200 yards, good enough for 6.6 yards per carry! While Greg McElroy and Julio Jones certainly contributed to Alabama’s strong victory, Ingram was the backbone of Alabama’s rushing attack and is perhaps the biggest reason that the Crimson Tide has already clinched the SEC West.
It was only appropriate that Alabama clinched the SEC West on the same day that Florida clinched the SEC East. Now, the fact that the title game was set nearly a month before it actually takes place should be a little bit of an indictment of the rest of the conference, but the only question in the SEC chase now is whether both teams can remain unbeaten.
Unfortunately, the clinching didn’t come without another SEC officiating controversy. Alabama was holding a slim 21-15 lead when McElroy threw what appeared to be a clear interception to LSU’s Patrick Peterson. However, replay officials inexplicably gave the ball back to Alabama and they drove for what turned out to be a game-clinching field goal. While it was far from a certainty that LSU would manage to score with their backup quarterback and tailback running their offense at that point, it’s a shame that they didn’t at least get the chance. It is also really unfortunate (or highly suspicious, according to conspiracy theorists) that so many bad calls have gone in favor of undefeated teams in the SEC this year.
Officiating aside, it will be very interesting to see if both teams can maintain their focus during the next month. Alabama has to travel to Mississippi State and host archrival Auburn while Florida travels to South Carolina before hosting scuttling rival Florida State, so neither team has an easy remaining schedule. However, I think it is safe at this point to pencil ‘SEC Champion’ into the BCS title game.
Remember when Oregon blew out USC and claimed what appeared to be an insurmountable lead in the Pac Ten race? Well, Oregon immediately ruined their momentum thanks to a terrible defensive showing in a 51-42 loss to Stanford and in doing so opened the conference race again. Oregon is still the favorite, but Arizona is looking solid at 4-1 and is also in control of their own destiny. Another team with a serious claim on the Pac Ten title would be Oregon State: The Beavers are 4-2 with two games against the lowly Washington schools remaining on the schedule before their showdown with the Ducks. Heck, don’t sleep on Stanford either: They’re already 5-2 and if they can upset offensively-challenged USC this week in the Coliseum then they could have a legitimate chance to win the conference should the race come down to a tiebreaker scenario.
Earlier, I mentioned that Rich Rodriguez’s arrival signaled the end of 40 years of unbroken winning tradition and ushering in an era of consecutive years of futility. Well, Charlie Weis has produced similar results in regards to Notre Dame’s longstanding rivalry with Navy. Weis took a 44 year winning streak against the Naval Academy and turned it into a two game losing streak on home turf against the Midshipmen!
Factor in another BCS-less season for the Irish despite a schedule that can at best be described as average and Weis’ only legitimate hope to hold onto his job is his huge contract. However, does anyone think at this point that money is going to save Weis’ job? Rumors are already flying that Irish boosters have raised millions of dollars towards a potential contract buyout.
Charlie Weis’ last three seasons in charge of the Irish have resulted in a combined record of 16-18 after taking the Irish to back to back BCS bowl losses in his first two seasons. His defenses have regressed and his final three games are anything but assured victories. The Irish are 6-3 but have to travel to 8-1 Pittsburgh and 6-3 Stanford to close out the year and a 7-5 finish is a distinct possibility. Simply put, three consecutive years of mediocrity won’t cut it for the Irish and if they lose to Pittsburgh this weekend, expect the ‘Brian Kelly to Notre Dame’ watch to intensify because Weis will be as good as gone.
After Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi’s injured ankle ended his regular season and the Hawkeyes’ Big Ten championship dream, there is now a change in the Rose Bowl lineup. That means that Ohio State is now in line for their first Rose Bowl berth since 1997! The major non-change is leaving Penn State in line for the Fiesta Bowl as a 10-2 Penn State team still seems to be a likely BCS bowl participant, for a variety of reasons, foremost being their enormous fan base.
This week also brought forth the first earned bowl berth: Navy is now an official participant in the Texas Bowl with their upset victory over Notre Dame! There were also some major developments in a negative manner as it appears that Michigan, Indiana and Wake Forest will be spending the postseason watching. Whether you’re interested in the rationale for my projections or are simply curious where your favorite team is going to end up in the postseason, check out all 34 bowl projections!
BCS Championship: Alabama versus Texas
Rose Bowl : Ohio State versus Oregon
Sugar Bowl : Florida versus Southern California
Fiesta Bowl : Penn State versus Pittsburgh
Orange Bowl : Georgia Tech versus Texas Christian
THE FINAL RANT: So Much For The Armageddon Scenario
It wasn’t very long ago that seemingly every person in the country with access to the internet was posting portends of BCS doom on message boards and blogs. ‘This is the year that the BCS crumbles!’ they crowed with unbridled joy as we entered November with seven undefeated teams, though two were of the non-BCS variety and therefore irrelevant when it comes to the national title discussion.
Well, after this past weekend’s events, I have to wonder what all of the doomsday prophets are thinking now. Iowa’s perfect season was derailed after losing starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi to injury. Cincinnati gave up 45 points to Connecticut and is a long shot to finish undefeated with a tough season-ending stretch that includes West Virginia and Pittsburgh. Boise State eliminated all pretenses of elite status with a near-upset at the hands of Louisiana Tech and still has to face two of the WAC’s strongest teams in the season’s final weeks. TCU looked strong but faces a significant challenge this weekend against 8-1 Utah. Finally, Florida and Alabama are now locked in on a collision course in Atlanta. Realistically, we’re looking at two major undefeated teams: The SEC Champion and Texas.
In fact, the BCS will work PERFECTLY this year! With two and only two major undefeated teams, the BCS’ stated purpose of matching up the top two teams in the country to decide the national champion will be a cakewalk compared to years past. Outside of the most fervent TCU and Boise State supporters, no one is going to argue with a title game matching up the only two undefeated teams from BCS conferences. In fact, I would wager that most people will grudgingly give the BCS its due for setting up a title game in the first place.
This isn’t like last year when there was a gaggle of teams with one loss that could legitimately claim a spot in the national title game. This is a season were a plus one would simply be redundant as the regular season would produce two and only two major undefeated teams for the 4 th time in 12 years. There simply won’t be any need for any playoff as the regular season would have already decided the most worthy teams. This is a perfect example why I think that there should be a conditional plus one system built into the BCS structure: To preserve the years where the best in the country have already been unanimously decided.
So, BCS haters, think long and hard about your never-ending desire for a playoff system because the regular season is almost certainly going to work out as a better playoff than any plus one would this year.
THE TOP 25
These rankings reflect the entire resume of a team during the season. Thus, I’m not putting together a power ranking based on teams matching up on a proverbial neutral field and settling things. In fact, I’m doing quite the opposite: I’m trying to reward achievement throughout the season against quality competition.
For example, I might be one of the few in the country that doesn’t have Boise State in the top ten. While the Broncos have an undeniably impressive victory over Oregon on their resume, they can only boast one victory over a team with a winning record on the rest of their entire schedule! That’s why both TCU and Houston are ranked ahead of them from the non-BCS schools: Both have played a significantly tougher schedule and I want to reward that.
That stance should encapsulate the philosophy behind my top 25. Without further ado, here are the newest top 25 rankings……
THE NATIONAL TITLE SHORT LIST
#1)Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0, #1 Last Week)
Week 10 Result: 24-15 Victory at Home versus #7 Louisiana State
Alabama has to be greatly relieved by the solid performance of quarterback Greg McElroy after consecutive poor outings. The combination of strong defense and an offense that finally expanded beyond running Mark Ingram every down led to a huge victory and Alabama’s resume is as impressive as any in America.
Week 11: At Mississippi State, 7:00 PM EST
#2)Florida Gators (9-0, #3)
Week 10 Result: 27-3 Victory at Home versus Vanderbilt
The SEC moves into my top two spots for the first time all season. The Gators continued their dominating season on defense against Vanderbilt. While the offense was slightly underwhelming, that really isn’t a surprise coming off of an emotional win against a rival. However, they will need to be in tune this weekend when they travel to face former coach Steve Spurrier and South Carolina.
Week 11: At South Carolina, 3:30 PM EST
#3)Texas Longhorns (9-0, #4)
Week 10 Result: 35-3 Victory at Home versus Central Florida
Texas started the game really slowly. I mean losing 3-0 in the 2 nd quarter to Central freaking Florida slow. That said, the Horns turned on the jets and pulled away pretty quickly after staggering to a 14-3 halftime win. Still, a win is a win and the Longhorns now have nine. Expect Texas to officially extend their double digit wins streak to nine consecutive seasons this weekend at lowly Baylor.
Week 11: At Baylor, Noon EST
#4)Cincinnati Bearcats (9-0, #5)
Week 10 Result: 47-45 Victory at Home versus Connecticut
Cincinnati managed to stay unbeaten but they were exposed in a major way on defense. The Bearcats allowed five touchdowns in the second half and Connecticut nearly rallied to victory! Cincinnati’s toughest stretch still remains: Big East foes West Virginia and Pittsburgh bookend a matchup with surging Illinois to close out the year. Odds are very much against the Bearcats to finish unbeaten with the state of their defense.
Week 11: Friday at Home versus West Virginia, 8:00 PM EST
THE BEST OF THE REST
#5)Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-1, #8)
Week 10 Result: 30-27 Overtime Victory at Home versus Wake Forest
Georgia Tech narrowly avoiding becoming the 4 th top ten team to fall to defeat, edging Wake Forest in overtime on a gutsy 4 th down conversion. The Yellow Jackets have all of the firepower in the world on offense but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. Despite this, they’ve emerged as the class of the ACC and can clinch the Coastal Division with a victory at Duke this weekend.
Week 11: At Duke, Noon EST
#6)Iowa Hawkeyes (9-1, #2)
Week 10 Result: 17-10 Loss at Home versus Northwestern
This ranking is purely the product of Iowa’s resume. They’ve beaten a lot of strong teams in tough venues since the year began but they’re in a world of hurt right now without Ricky Stanzi. Simply put, the Hawkeyes have had too many injuries on offense to compete at Ohio State this weekend and they’ll need to figure out their offensive woes in time to finish the year in two weeks against rival Minnesota. 10-2 looks like their best-case scenario without Stanzi.
Week 11: At #12 Ohio State, 3:30 PM EST
#7)Texas Christian Horned Frogs (9-0, #10)
Week 10 Result: 55-12 Victory at San Diego State
TCU will be put to the test this weekend as Utah comes to visit in what will likely be the Horned Frogs’ final obstacle in the way of their BCS dreams. TCU has beaten a number of quality opponents this year, including ACC Atlantic Division leader Clemson, and they’re in the driver’s seat for the BCS at-large berth.
Week 11: Home versus #25 Utah, 7:30 PM EST
#8)Pittsburgh Panthers (8-1, #13)
Week 10 Result: 37-10 Victory at Home versus Syracuse
I don’t remember the last time Pitt was in the top ten. However, the Panthers have literally run through their schedule on the back of tailback Dion Lewis, who is probably the best freshman in the country at any position. Pitt’s balanced offense (thanks to a breakout year from QB Bill Stull) is paired with an exceptional defense and the Panthers are definitely the most talented team in the conference. If Pitt can navigate a closing stretch that features Notre Dame, West Virginia and Cincinnati, they might finish as the highest-ranked one loss team in America.
Week 11: Home versus Notre Dame, 8:00 PM EST
#9) Miami Hurricanes (7-2, #11)
Week 10 Result: 52-17 Victory at Home versus Virginia
Miami blew the doors off of Virginia this past weekend, augmenting an already impressive resume. Yes, the Hurricanes have made some youthful errors but they’ve still beaten some of the country’s best teams. How they perform down the stretch against North Carolina and South Florida will really define how successful their year has been.
Week 11: At North Carolina, Time TBD
#10) Oregon Ducks (7-2, #6)
Week 10 Result: 51-42 Loss at Stanford
Despite a shockingly bad defensive performance against Stanford, Oregon still has a strong resume to fall back on. They’re still the favorites in the Pac Ten by a large margin. Thus, I’m going to be somewhat forgiving regarding the Stanford game and not drop the Ducks too far with one caveat: If the Ducks’ defense continues their woes then I’m going to reevaluate their standing.
Week 11: Home versus Arizona State, 10:20 PM EST
#11) Southern California Trojans (7-2, #14)
Week 10 Result: 14-9 Victory at Arizona State
Things are not peachy in Trojanland. USC’s young team has been decimated by injuries on both sides of the football and their offense has become rather toothless in a surprisingly short period of time. However, USC has won seven of their first nine games despite playing six games on the road! With three straight home games to close the season, perhaps the Trojans will continue their run of dominance in the Coliseum. However, Stanford and Arizona are both currently ranked and rival UCLA is never an easy game, leaving USC with perhaps the toughest closing schedule of any team in the country.
Week 11: Home versus #20 Stanford, 3:30 PM EST
#12) Ohio State Buckeyes (8-2, #15)
Week 10 Result: 24-7 Victory at #9 Penn State
Was this week the breakthrough performance for Terrelle Pryor and Ohio State’s offense? While that’s certainly a possibility, I need to praise the Buckeye defense: They possess the best defensive line in the country and are without a doubt one of the absolute most elite units in America. Ohio State is now in control of their destiny and is two wins away from Jim Tressel’s first Rose Bowl berth and Ohio State’s first since 1997.
Week 11: Home versus #6 Iowa, 3:30 PM EST
#13) Louisiana State Tigers (7-2, #7)
Week 10 Result: 24-15 Loss at #1 Alabama
It was a tough loss for LSU, especially considering the fact that they lost their starting quarterback and their starting tailback during the game. The Tigers were also the victim of the aforementioned inexplicable replay decision which cost them a shot at a final drive to win the game. The big question for the Tigers now is whether they can finish the season strong despite their injury issues.
Week 11: Home versus Louisiana Tech, 7:00 PM EST
#14) Arizona Wildcats (6-2, #18)
Week 10 Result: 48-7 Victory at Home versus Washington State
Arizona has a monumental task ahead: The Wildcats sit at 4-1 in Pac Ten play and control their own destiny in the Rose Bowl race. However, they have to face California, USC, Oregon and Arizona State in consecutive weeks to close out the season, giving them one of the toughest closing stretches in college football! The Wildcats have never played in the Rose Bowl, so their run at history could be a riveting story down the stretch.
Week 11: At California, 10:20 PM EST
#15) Wisconsin Badgers (7-2, #17)
Week 10 Result: 31-28 Victory at Indiana
Wisconsin’s formula of running the football down opponents’ throats produced another victory on Saturday, this time against a desperate Indiana team whose bowl hopes were dashed by the loss. The Badgers must now repeat that effort against a similarly desperate Michigan team in Camp Randall this weekend.
Week 11: Home versus Michigan, Noon EST
#16) Penn State Nittany Lions (8-2, #9)
Week 10 Result: 24-7 Loss at Home versus #15 Ohio State
Penn State’s loss to Ohio State exposed a couple of major issues. First, the Nittany Lions’ offensive line can’t hold up against a strong defensive line. That’s twice that an elite unit has dominated them this season. Second, Penn State’s special teams are terrible: Ohio State’s Ray Small absolutely gashed them on punt returns that tilted field position heavily in the Buckeyes’ favor. Finally, Darryl Clark simply isn’t a big game quarterback. In the past two seasons, he’s only played well in one big game for the Nittany Lions, their 38-24 loss to USC in last year’s Rose Bowl. Twice this season he’s faced elite opponents at home and twice this season he’s produced an abysmal showing. Despite these shortcomings, if Penn State can finish out 10-2 then I fully expect this team to earn a BCS bowl at-large berth thanks to their big traveling fan base.
Week 11:Home versus Indiana, Noon EST
#17) Houston Cougars (8-1, #12)
Week 10 Result: 46-45 Victory at Tulsa
I actually thought that the Cougars had lost this game when they missed a late two point conversion. However, never count Case Keenum out: An onside kick recovery and two big pass plays set up a game-winning 50 yard field goal, which kept the Cougars atop the C-USA West standings. However, Houston drops this week due to a combination of a relatively weak schedule compared to the teams around them and their continual inability to play defense.
Week 11:At Central Florida, Noon EST
#18) Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-2, #20)
Week 10 Result: 34-8 Victory at Iowa State
Oklahoma State impressed me this weekend. Not because they beat lowly Iowa State but because they rebounded well emotionally from what could have been a devastating loss to Texas. The Cowboys dominated from the start on the road against a team that has historically had their number and that was impressive. Now they face a Big XII South closing gauntlet of Texas Tech, Texas A&M and archrival Oklahoma: How will they hold up?
Week 11: Home versus Texas Tech, 8:00 PM EST
#19) Oregon State Beavers (6-3, #23)
Week 10 Result: 31-14 Victory at #25 California
There are few guarantees in life: Death, Taxes and Oregon State playing really well in the second half of the year. The Beavers upped their record to 6-3 (4-2 in Pac Ten play) with a dominating road win against a ranked Cal team that had built some solid momentum and a three game winning streak. While the Beavers will need some serious help in their quest to win the Pac Ten, they have the easiest remaining schedule and their season-ending matchup with Oregon could also have a Rose Bowl berth on the line.
Week 11:Home versus Washington, 3:30 PM EST
#20) Stanford Cardinal (6-3, Not Ranked)
Week 10 Result: 51-42 Victory at Home versus #6 Oregon
Speaking of the Rose Bowl, Stanford could be a major player in the Chase for the Roses as well. The Cardinal is 5-2 in conference with games against USC and California remaining. As neither team has looked like a world-beater thus far, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Stanford finish up 7-2 in conference play and that could definitely produce a scenario where the Cardinal find themselves playing in Pasadena on New Year’s Day. With an offense that just put up 51 points against Oregon’s previously excellent defense, I wouldn’t count them out.
Week 11: At #11 Southern California, 3:30 PM EST
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#21) Virginia Tech Hokies (6-3, #22)
Week 10 Result: 16-3 Victory at East Carolina
College football is all about getting better over the course of the season and I think the root of Virginia Tech’s issues is that they simply haven’t gotten better since the year began. Their offense hasn’t evolved but their defense is still exceptional. Their 16-3 victory at ECU was a microcosm of their season: Their offense was unspectacular but was bailed out by their excellent defense. I don’t envision that changing anytime soon but the Hokies are still looking at a strong finish to the season.
Week 11: At Maryland, 1:00 PM EST
#22) Clemson Tigers (6-3, NR)
Week 10 Result: 40-24 Victory at Home versus Florida State
C.J. Spiller enters the rankings this week after another exceptional performance on national TV rocketed him up the Heisman watch list. What? Oh yeah, I guess his team can join him at #22 as he’s carried them up to this point. Seriously, Spiller had trouble running by the end of their victory but he turned a nerve-wracking close game into a runaway Clemson victory almost singlehandedly. The Tigers are now two wins from winning the ACC Atlantic Division for the first time in school history.
Week 11: At North Carolina State, Noon EST
#23)Boston College Eagles (6-3, #24)
Week 10 Result: Off Week
The run of ACC schools continues with idle Boston College. The Eagles are still very much a contender in the ACC Atlantic Division but Clemson holds the head to head tiebreaker, meaning that the Eagles will need to win out if they want to have any chance to play for the conference title for the 3 rd consecutive season.
Week 11: At Virginia, 3:30 PM EST
#24) Boise State Broncos (9-0, #19)
Week 10 Result: 45-35 Victory at Louisiana Tech
It was a double whammy this week for the Broncos. Beginning with a thoroughly unimpressive victory at pithy Louisiana Tech and ending with Oregon’s upset loss to Stanford, the Broncos took a big step back in my eyes. The fact remains that Boise State has only beaten two teams with winning records this season and I seriously doubt how good this team actually is. After watching Nevada blow the doors off of San Jose State on Sunday night, I’m not even sure that Boise State is going to finish the season undefeated. Boise State made a big deal in the news about having trouble convincing top-flight teams to schedule them in the future and I’m going to agree with the Broncos: If they can’t get any BCS schools to play them out of conference then they need to seriously look into joining the Mountain West.
Week 11: Home versus Idaho, 3:30 PM EST
#25) Utah Utes (8-1, NR)
Week 10 Result: 45-14 Victory at Home versus New Mexico State
Utah enters my rankings just in time to have the chance to make a major impact on the Mountain West race. The Utes’ 8-1 record is only blemished by an early loss at Oregon and if they can knock off TCU this weekend then they’re going to be in the driver’s seat in the Mountain West title chase. Can Utah make a bid for back to back MWC titles?
Week 11: At #7 Texas Christian, 7:30 PM EST
By Matt Baxendell
Matt Baxendell is collegesports-fans.com’s football writer. Keep an eye out all fall for his multiple weekly articles discussing everything college football. If you want to get in touch with him, email him at Matt.Baxendell@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @MattBaxendell
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